A trader has placed a significant bearish wager that Brent crude oil will fall below $50 per barrel by year-end, betting that oversupply concerns will outweigh geopolitical risks.
Data from Monday showed a put options trade equivalent to 10 million barrels of Brent crude was executed. The trader is betting that Brent crude futures will drop below $50/barrel before the December 23 options expiry, a level nearly 25% below current prices of approximately $68.
Following this trade, several other funds have reportedly begun examining similar spread strategies as of Tuesday.
Despite the bearish sentiment, oil prices have actually rebounded recently. Escalating Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have heightened market concerns about reduced crude supply from Moscow, driving futures prices higher.
**A Multi-Million Dollar Bearish Bet**
This notable trade employed an options spread strategy.
According to the trade structure, the trader bought a series of put options with a $50 strike price while selling put options with a $49 strike price. If the February futures contract expiring on December 23 falls below $50 and reaches $49, this initial investment of approximately $350,000 could surge in value to $10 million.
The core logic supporting this bearish bet centers on expectations that global energy markets will face oversupply.
Crude futures have traded within a narrow range of less than $5 for most of the time since August. While prices briefly broke above $75 earlier this year, they have since declined consistently.
Analysts at Macquarie Group, including Vikas Dwivedi, noted in a report that global supply growth will lead to market oversupply of approximately 3 million barrels per day in Q4 this year and Q1 2026.
The report suggests that supply growth will come from both OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers, combined with potential tariff threats from President Trump that could suppress economic growth, creating downward pressure on oil prices.
**Market Battle Between Bulls and Bears**
However, the market sentiment is not uniformly bearish.
In fact, recent oil price gains directly challenge the aforementioned pessimistic outlook. Ukraine's intensified attacks on Russian energy facilities have prompted markets to reassess the risk of supply flow disruptions from Moscow.
This has influenced market sentiment toward a "moderately optimistic" tendency.
Data shows that call option premiums have exceeded put option premiums for the first time since July, indicating that market expectations for near-term price increases are growing.
Currently, the tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and macroeconomic supply expectations is presenting investors and traders with difficult choices.