Food & Beverage Sector Experiences Pre-Holiday Volatility as Baijiu Leaders Decline Collectively! Sector Valuations Hit Rock Bottom - Is It Time to Position?

Deep News
Sep 30

The food and beverage sector continued its low-level fluctuations today (September 30), with the Food ETF (515710), which reflects the overall performance of the sector, falling 0.48% during trading hours.

Among constituent stocks, baijiu companies led the declines. Jiugui Liquor dropped nearly 3%, while Shede Spirits, Kweichow Moutai, and Jinshiyuan all fell more than 1%. Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Luzhou Laojiao also declined modestly, weighing down the sector's performance.

Market analysis indicates that with the approaching National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays this week, sales momentum has accelerated compared to previous periods, providing some boost to overall September sales performance. Moutai, Fenjiu, Yingjia, and Jiugui showed sales and product performance in certain regions that exceeded previous market expectations. Currently, capital markets have prepared for expectations of significant declines in Mid-Autumn sales, keeping expectations relatively low. Liquor companies are gradually adopting more objective approaches to market pressures, with some implementing more proactive measures to explore opportunities and adapt to future consumption trend changes. Both sales and earnings are in a gradual bottoming process.

From a valuation perspective, the food and beverage sector remains at low levels, potentially presenting a favorable allocation opportunity. Data shows that as of yesterday's (September 29) close, the Food ETF (515710) underlying index - the Segmented Food Index - had a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.49 times, positioned at the 6.65% percentile of the past 10 years, highlighting attractive medium to long-term allocation value.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, analysts expect the baijiu industry to continue in an adjustment period. As the macroeconomic environment gradually improves and consumer confidence slowly recovers, the industry is expected to stabilize progressively, with leading companies possessing strong brand power, healthy channels, and abundant cash flow likely to recover first.

Other institutions note that negative factors from baijiu half-year reports have been digested, with the sector still in a bottom consolidation range. Sales momentum and scenario performance remain weak, but as the industry accelerates inventory reduction and policies warm up, channel confidence is gradually recovering. The baijiu sector is progressively entering peak season, with Moutai officially reporting significant month-over-month improvement in recent sales momentum. Various liquor companies are actively innovating products and seeking channel reforms to maintain market share. Focus should be placed on bottom allocation opportunities in the industry.

For one-click allocation to core assets in the food and beverage sector, attention should be paid to Food ETF (515710). According to statistics from CSI, Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI Segmented Food and Beverage Industry Theme Index, with approximately 60% positioned in premium and sub-premium baijiu leaders, and nearly 40% covering leading stocks in beverages, dairy products, seasonings, beer and other sub-sectors. The top ten weighted stocks include the "Big Five" baijiu companies (Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Fenjiu, Yanghe), Yili, Haitian Flavouring & Food, and others. Off-exchange investors can also allocate to core food and beverage sector assets through Food ETF feeder funds (Class A: 012548/Class C: 012549).

Data sources: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, as of September 30, 2025.

Risk Warning: Food ETF passively tracks the CSI Segmented Food and Beverage Industry Theme Index, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and published on April 11, 2012. Index constituent stock composition is adjusted according to index compilation rules as appropriate, and backtested historical performance does not predict future index performance. Individual stocks mentioned in the text are objective displays of index constituents and should not be considered recommendations for any individual stocks, nor do they represent fund management or investment directions. Any information appearing in this text (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, predictions, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only, and investors must take responsibility for any autonomous investment decisions. Additionally, any views, analyses, and predictions in this text do not constitute investment advice to readers in any form, and fund companies assume no responsibility for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Investors should carefully read fund legal documents including Fund Contracts, Prospectuses, and Fund Product Summaries to understand fund risk-return characteristics and select products appropriate to their risk tolerance. Past fund performance does not predict future performance, and performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee fund performance. According to fund manager assessment, Food ETF has a risk level of R3-Medium Risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors. Appropriateness matching opinions should be based on sales institutions. Sales institutions (including fund management direct sales institutions and other sales institutions) conduct risk assessments of the above funds according to relevant laws and regulations. Investors should pay attention to appropriateness opinions issued by fund managers in a timely manner. Appropriateness opinions from various sales institutions may not necessarily be consistent, and risk level assessment results issued by fund sales institutions must not be lower than those made by fund managers. Differences exist between fund risk-return characteristics in fund contracts and fund risk levels due to different consideration factors. Investors should understand fund risk-return situations and carefully select fund products based on their investment objectives, periods, investment experience, and risk tolerance, bearing risks independently. CSRC registration of the above funds does not indicate substantial judgment or guarantee of investment value, market prospects, and returns. Fund investment requires caution.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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