Caitong Securities Initiates Coverage on LI AUTO-W (02015) with "Overweight" Rating, AI Strategy Expands Long-Term Potential

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5 hours ago

LI AUTO-W (02015) demonstrates robust profitability, with intelligent technology and organizational upgrades driving long-term growth potential. The company is projected to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of RMB 4.7 billion, RMB 8.0 billion, and RMB 12.4 billion for 2025–2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 32x, 19x, and 12x, respectively. Caitong Securities initiates coverage with an "Overweight" rating. Key insights include:

**i6 Drives Volume Growth, Dual Strategy Expands Market** Starting in 2025, LI AUTO accelerated its pure-electric vehicle (EV) rollout. Following the Mega, the I8 launched in August with a price tag of RMB 339,800. The i6, introduced in September 2025, surpassed 50,000 orders within two weeks, selling out initial production capacity and becoming a breakout model in LI AUTO’s EV lineup. Its competitive edge lies in cost-effectiveness: compared to Tesla’s Model Y and Xiaomi’s YU7, the i6 leads in size, comfort, and features. Specifically, the i6 offers longer wheelbases and superior dimensions versus the Model Y, while matching the YU7. At RMB 239,800 (limited-time price), it includes premium features like leather seats, dual-chamber air suspension, soft-close doors, and a standalone compressor fridge. Additionally, its AD Max autonomous driving system comes standard, whereas the YU7 requires an extra fee. The i6 strikes a balanced, pragmatic appeal for mainstream buyers by delivering higher comfort and smart features at a lower price.

**AD Max Gains Traction, AI Strategy Unlocks Long-Term Value** Since 2021, LI AUTO has developed in-house algorithms, completing three iterations by 2024. AD Max penetration reached 75.4% for models priced above RMB 300,000 and 84.6% for those above RMB 400,000 in 2024. In May 2025, the upgraded L-series adopted NVIDIA Thor-U chips, and on August 20, the I8 debuted with the VLA driver AI model, enhancing autonomous driving capabilities. Long-term, the company is expanding into AI, exploring applications in smart terminals and humanoid robotics, signaling significant revaluation potential.

**Risks**: New product rollout execution, intelligent tech iteration, and macro/policy uncertainties.

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