ASML Holding NV's Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet has withdrawn the company's growth forecast for 2026, attributing the move to escalating trade disputes and global geopolitical tensions. Fouquet emphasized in Wednesday's earnings statement, "We continue to witness rising uncertainties from macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. Thus, while we remain poised for 2026 expansion, we cannot confirm it at this juncture."

The announcement triggered a sharp decline in ASML's Amsterdam-listed shares, which plummeted as much as 7.1% to €655.70, marking the steepest drop since April. Over the past year, the stock has tumbled 33%.

Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen underscored tariff threats on new systems and components destined for the US, warning of potential retaliatory actions from other countries. In a video accompanying the earnings release, he cautioned that tariffs could erode ASML's gross margins.

Semiconductors currently evade US tariffs, but the impact on chip-making equipment remains unclear. Chaotic policy implementations by the Trump administration have disrupted markets and complicated large-scale investment planning.

Barclays analysts Simon Coles and Rohan Bal observed, "At this stage, these remarks appear more pessimistic than anticipated."

ASML projected third-quarter net sales between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, falling short of expectations. The company maintained its full-year revenue growth guidance at 15%.

Second-quarter orders totaled €5.5 billion (approximately $6.4 billion), exceeding analysts' average estimate. Quarterly orders serve as a critical indicator for future sales but exhibit high volatility. ASML will cease reporting this metric next year, citing its inconsistency in reflecting business momentum.

Despite the near-term caution, Fouquet highlighted the sustained artificial intelligence boom as a potential tailwind. "Looking toward 2026, our AI clients' fundamentals remain strong," he affirmed.

ASML's customer base includes giants like TSMC and Intel. As the sole producer of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the company stands to benefit from massive investments in AI data centers. This technology is essential for manufacturing Nvidia's most advanced chips, which anchor numerous AI infrastructure projects.

Signs of easing US-China tensions could also favor ASML. Nvidia and AMD recently indicated plans to resume some previously banned chip sales to China after securing US assurances.

However, ASML faces significant restrictions on China shipments, where it was the second-largest market in the first quarter. US-led curbs have long barred sales of its most advanced EUV machines, and Dutch government interventions last year blocked immersion deep ultraviolet system exports.

No regulatory relaxation appears imminent, but ASML could gain indirectly if its clients increase China-based sales.

Supply chain tightening measures have further pressured the company. Intel's cost-cutting restructuring includes delays to factory projects in Germany and Poland.

In a related development, Samsung Electronics reported its first profit decline since 2023 due to AI market share erosion, though some analysts predict a recovery this summer.