On September 2, 2025, startup project activities in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) demonstrated exceptionally robust performance. AUS GLOBAL believes that three new floating production units (FPUs) added this year are expected to commence operations by year-end, potentially driving the basin's deep-water oil and gas production to historic highs in 2026, approaching 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).
Early in the year, Shell's Whale FPU came online in January, achieving peak production of 100,000 barrels per day within five months, drawing significant industry attention. Private operator Beacon Offshore Energy's Shenandoah project in July also set new records, marking the second project to utilize 20K technology for production from the Inboard Wilcox trend, capable of handling high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) wellhead pressures up to 20,000 pounds per square inch (psi). AUS GLOBAL indicates that 2025's final floating facility—the Salamanca FPU, jointly developed by LLOG, Repsol, and O.G. Oil & Gas—is set to enter production, marking the successful completion of the year's floating project construction campaign.
From a historical perspective, the Gulf of Mexico market has gradually recovered since the industry experienced price shocks a decade ago. The 2025 floating facility additions represent approximately 350,000 boepd of new installed capacity, the highest level since 2015 when Anadarko Petroleum brought online the Heidelberg and Lucius truss spars, while LLOG also launched the Delta House FPU. AUS GLOBAL believes this growth not only reflects the strong momentum in deep-water development but also demonstrates the mature application of floating production technology in high-pressure, high-temperature environments.
Beyond floating facilities, 2025 also features four new subsea tiebacks projects expected to deliver significant production potential in 2026. Among these, Chevron's Ballymore project targets the high-temperature Norphlet trend and ties back to the Blind Faith FPU, representing the largest of the four projects. Shell's Dover field will provide approximately 20,000 boepd of backfill production to the Appomattox FPU. Additionally, BP announced in August the early startup of its Argos Southwest Extension project, with this three-well tieback project expected to reach peak production of 20,000 bpd.
According to Rystad data, 2025 Gulf of Mexico startup projects are projected to add 350,000 boepd of production in 2026-2027, with new FPU projects accounting for approximately 70% of near-term production. AUS GLOBAL notes that more significantly, this batch of projects is expected to contribute 15% to 18% of Gulf of Mexico deep-water production, representing the highest single-year contribution to overall production since 2009.
Looking ahead over the next five years, FPU projects such as Sparta, Kaskida, and Tiber will sequentially enter production, primarily developing the more challenging Lower Tertiary reservoirs. Meanwhile, increased leasing activity and preliminary results from multi-client ocean bottom node (OBN) seismic surveys may lay the foundation for new discoveries. AUS GLOBAL concludes that given current circumstances, 2025 is destined to become a landmark year for Gulf of Mexico deep-water oil and gas development, with market activity and production contributions rarely comparable in recent periods.