Wall Street’s Big Six banks are set to report mixed Q2 results, with most expecting moderate revenue and earnings growth, except JPMorgan, which anticipates notable declines.

Wall Street’s six largest banks are set to release their second-quarter earnings results between July 15 and 16, offering a fresh look at the health of the U.S. financial sector amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. According to Bloomberg estimates, expectations are mixed: most banks are projected to post moderate revenue and earnings growth, while JPMorgan Chase stands out with a notable year-over-year revenue decline.

Here’s a closer look at what each bank is expected to report:

US Bank Earnings Set for No Major Surprises

Citigroup: Modest Growth Across the Board (Reports July 15)

Citigroup is projected to deliver steady Q2 results when it reports on July 15. Revenue is expected to rise 3.7% YoY to $20.88 billion, while adjusted net income is forecast to increase 3.52% to $3.10 billion. Adjusted EPS is set to grow 5.68% to $1.63. These figures reflect a stable quarter, likely supported by improvements in consumer banking and operational efficiency.

JPMorgan: Revenue Weakness Despite EPS Growth (Reports July 15)

Also scheduled to report on July 15, JPMorgan is expected to post the weakest top-line performance among peers, with revenue projected to fall 13.6% YoY to $44.06 billion. Adjusted net income is expected to dip 2.01% to $12.44 billion. Interestingly, adjusted EPS is still forecast to rise 1.61% to $4.47, suggesting disciplined capital allocation. The bank’s performance may be weighed down by declines in trading and investment banking activity.

Wells Fargo: Stable but Subdued Outlook (Reports July 15)

Wells Fargo will also release results on July 15, with revenue expected to remain essentially flat at $20.76 billion (+0.34% YoY). Adjusted net income is forecast to edge up 0.70% to $4.67 billion, while EPS is expected to rise 5.67% to $1.41. The bank appears to be maintaining stability in its core lending business, with modest improvement in profitability likely driven by cost discipline.

Goldman Sachs: Strongest EPS Growth in the Group (Reports July 16)

Goldman Sachs is projected to post one of the most impressive Q2 results when it reports on July 16. Revenue is expected to increase 5.91% YoY to $13.48 billion, and adjusted net income is set to grow 8.32% to $3.13 billion. Notably, adjusted EPS is forecast to surge 12.62% to $9.71, the highest among the group. This strong performance likely reflects recovery in investment banking and robust asset management earnings.

Morgan Stanley: Consistent Growth Across Metrics (Reports July 16)

Morgan Stanley, also reporting on July 16, is expected to post solid growth across the board. Revenue is forecast to rise 7.08% YoY to $16.08 billion, with adjusted net income up 8.25% to $3.19 billion, and EPS projected to climb 9.59% to $1.99. Continued strength in wealth management and a gradual rebound in capital markets may be the main drivers.

Bank of America: Balanced and Conservative Forecast (Reports July 16)

Bank of America is set to report on July 16, with revenue expected to rise 5.37% YoY to $26.74 billion. Adjusted net income is projected to increase 1.90% to $6.71 billion, while EPS is expected to grow 4.22% to $0.87. The bank may benefit from stable net interest income and sound credit quality, although its growth profile appears more cautious relative to others in the group.

Biggest US Banks Boost Payouts After Lighter Fed Stress Test

Wall Street's largest lenders, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, boosted their dividends after passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests this year.

The Fed's exam showed that all 22 banks examined would maintain enough capital to withstand a hypothetical economic downturn, with results indicating that "large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession".

The banks also authorized share buybacks, with JPMorgan approving a $50 billion share repurchase and Morgan Stanley reauthorizing a multiyear share repurchase program of up to $20 billion.

Analysts Eye Second Half Outlook

As earnings season kicks off for US banks, UBS analysts believe investors should look beyond the headline results for the second quarter and instead concentrate on the back half of the year.

“Outlook matters more than results,” the analysts wrote in a note, noting that no major fireworks are expected. 

“We are 4% below consensus on the Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs), but we think that consensus is not fully updated from Q1, which may not have appreciated how slow April and H1 May would be,” they wrote. 

However, sentiment has shifted since then. “We nevertheless found ourselves revising spring conference investment banking updates higher based on industry data, and expect management teams to be rather upbeat about H2 activity levels following a solid June, enough to keep shares going,” UBS wrote.