Currently, Canada imports more automobiles from Mexico than from the United States; China avoids American soybean farmers during harvest season, turning instead to South American growers; India and China have resumed direct flights and restarted rare earth trade, ending years of frozen relations... As governments worldwide restructure trade alliances, companies are seeking alternative markets to circumvent U.S. tariffs at their highest levels since the 1930s, and a new global trade landscape is gradually emerging.
Smaller economies are also adapting to the new reality of elevated barriers to the U.S. market. Peru is developing Asian markets for its blueberries, while textile-producing Lesotho is shifting focus toward Asia, Europe, and other African regions. Additionally, 14 countries including New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland, and the UAE have formed partnerships aimed at promoting mutual trade and investment.
Despite concerns that "tit-for-tat" retaliation against the Trump administration's tariff policies would trigger economic recession, the global economy has not slumped as anticipated. Rather, America's turn toward protectionism has demonstrated the robust resilience of global trade, where 85% of transactions occur outside the United States. In October this year, the World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its 2025 global goods trade growth forecast from 0.9% to 2.4%.
"Clearly, countries are actively trying to form new alliances, deepen existing cooperative relationships, and establish new partnerships," said Cecilia Malmström, former EU Trade Commissioner and current researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Logistics companies including shipping firms and port operators are feeling these changes most acutely. Christian Gonzalez, Executive Vice President of International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI), a Manila port operator, noted that Chinese manufacturers are actively exploring alternative markets in response to U.S. trade barriers. The company's stock has risen nearly 30% this year.
"The reshaping of trade patterns holds tremendous positive potential for us," he said regarding these changes. "Global trade flows will not be interrupted."
Currently, changes in global commodity flows have not triggered "seismic" disruption, but rather subtle adjustments that are beginning to appear in the data. In August, China's export growth fell to a six-month low, with exports to the U.S. plummeting 33%; in contrast, China's exports to the ten ASEAN countries grew nearly 23% that month, exports to the EU increased 10%, and exports to Africa rose 26%. These figures indicate that as the world's second-largest economy, China is still positioned to achieve a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion this year.
Maritime data services provider Clarksons Plc predicts that trans-Pacific routes, the main conduit for China-U.S. trade, will see cargo volumes contract nearly 3% this year; however, all other routes are showing growth, albeit at a slower pace than in 2024.
"Clearly, we are reshaping the international trade landscape," said Ina Simonovska, Associate Professor of Economics at UC Davis, who predicts "more bilateral trade agreements will emerge between countries and among national sub-groups in the future."
European Commission President von der Leyen stated that she and other Brussels officials are working to expand the EU's trade partner network, which currently encompasses 76 partners, including accelerating negotiations that had been delayed for years. EU countries are currently advancing the approval process for an agreement with Mercosur, which covers 780 million consumers and represents negotiations that have lasted 25 years. In September this year, after nearly a decade of consultations, the EU also signed a free trade agreement with Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. Similarly, EU-Australia agreement negotiations launched in 2017 achieved breakthrough progress in June this year.
"Currently, various trade negotiations have gained new momentum, and many negotiations are expected to finally reach completion," said Simon Evenett of the International Institute for Management Development (IMD) in Lausanne, Switzerland, who has long tracked global trade dynamics.
Despite global trade demonstrating resilience, Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economics professor and trade specialist, warns that the rush by countries to sign bilateral or regional agreements could squeeze out smaller economies that have long relied on the rules-based trading system dominated by the World Trade Organization.
"Originally, all countries followed a common set of rules, but now we're moving toward 'every nation for itself.' For countries whose economic strength cannot match the United States, this world will become much more brutal," Prasad said.
For example, East Timor, the newest WTO member, is a Southeast Asian country with only 1.4 million people and per capita GDP of approximately $1,300. Having gained independence from Indonesia in 2002, it has long faced instability. Despite the Trump administration's efforts to weaken the 30-year-old WTO institution, including drastically cutting its funding, East Timor's representative to the UN Office in Geneva, António da Conceição, remains hopeful about joining the WTO, hoping to diversify the oil-dependent economy by opening new markets for the country's coffee, vanilla, and fruits.
"Our country can begin learning from other nations," said da Conceição, who initiated East Timor's WTO accession negotiations during his tenure as Trade Minister from 2012 to 2015.
Trump's trade war has also created ripples within the United States. Ben Knepler operates a company called "True Places" in Wallingford, Pennsylvania, which designs outdoor seating produced by factories in Cambodia. Due to tariffs making his business model unsustainable, he has stopped importing products to the United States and is seeking overseas customers to keep the company operational.
"It's somewhat absurd that we have to consider such things," Knepler said, "but the current situation is that as an American company, we're considering no longer doing business in America."