Goldman Sachs Reviews Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US) Oral Drug VK2735 Trial Results: Significant Efficacy but Questionable Tolerability, Better Suited for Weight Maintenance

Stock News
Aug 21

Goldman Sachs released a commentary report this week regarding Viking Therapeutics' (VKTX.US) recent trial results and mentioned potential impacts on Eli Lilly (LLY.US). Recently, Viking Therapeutics announced that its oral drug VK2735 for obesity treatment achieved the primary endpoint in the Phase II VENTURE oral administration trial, with positive topline results. Based on valuation analysis, Goldman Sachs assigned a $33 target price.

The results showed that across dose groups ranging from 15mg to 120mg, reported mean weight reduction ranged from 2.3% (1% placebo-adjusted) to 12.2% (10.9% placebo-adjusted). In the placebo group, 13% of patients discontinued due to adverse events, while approximately 20% of patients receiving oral VK2735 treatment discontinued for the same reason. The most common cause of discontinuation was gastrointestinal-related adverse events.

Additionally, in an exploratory dosing cohort, patients were treated with 90mg dose for 6 weeks, followed by dose reduction to 30mg for maintenance treatment for 7 weeks. Results showed placebo-adjusted weight loss of 6.7% at week 6 and 7.9% at week 13.

The published results align with Goldman's view that injectable formulations will maintain the largest market share, while oral VK2735 is better suited for weight maintenance. The firm believes rapid titration may be one reason why oral VK2735 achieved competitive weight loss effects by week 13.

Notably, compared to Phase III studies of oral semaglutide and oral orforglipron, the Phase II trial of oral VK2735 employed a faster titration schedule. Faster titration may have accelerated weight loss but at the cost of higher adverse event rates.

High gastrointestinal adverse event rates and discontinuation rates may stem from high placebo effects and rapid titration. After placebo adjustment, Goldman estimates that by week 13, treatment discontinuation rates for oral VK2735 in high-dose groups (60mg to 120mg) were approximately 10%-20%, still higher than the 5%-8% discontinuation rate due to adverse events at week 72 in orforglipron's Phase III trial (12mg and 36mg dose groups).

By week 13, placebo-adjusted gastrointestinal adverse event rates for oral VK2735 were also higher than orforglipron's week 72 data, but relatively lower than oral amycretin's week 12 data.

The weight maintenance field is more suitable for oral VK2735. It's worth noting that Viking Therapeutics envisions patients first undergoing induction treatment with weekly subcutaneous VK2735 injections to rapidly achieve target weight, then continuing with that regimen or switching to monthly subcutaneous injections or daily oral regimens to help maintain weight.

As proof of concept, weight loss data from patients treated with 90mg dose for 6 weeks followed by dose reduction to 30mg oral VK2735 maintenance for 7 weeks supports the potential of low-dose oral formulations for weight maintenance.

Regarding the impact on Eli Lilly (LLY.US), Goldman analyst Asad Haider noted that orforglipron has relatively superior tolerability characteristics, with its maintenance scenario trial (ATTAIN-MAINTAIN) currently ongoing and a clear differentiation from VK2735's positioning. He emphasized that Lilly's subsequent development path depends on dynamic events progressing before the end of 2025.

Goldman stated in its report that after orforglipron ATTAIN-1 trial data was released, Viking Therapeutics rose 19% cumulatively over two consecutive days, while Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) gained approximately 12%, indicating the market is conducting a broad reassessment of the competitive landscape in the oral weight loss drug sector.

Subsequently, Goldman's research with key opinion leaders (KOLs) showed that the physician community has a generally positive overall assessment of orforglipron; compared to Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide, doctors expect roughly equivalent prescription volumes for both drugs.

From VK2735's Phase II VENTURE oral administration trial, Goldman derived interpretations regarding Lilly (though it should be noted that since the VENTURE trial lasted 13 weeks while the ATTAIN-1 trial lasted 72 weeks, they are not directly comparable), specifically:

1) VK2735's tolerability appears weaker than orforglipron, and key opinion leaders (KOLs) have consistently emphasized that tolerability is an important factor for drugs to achieve widespread adoption;

2) Results from the maintenance treatment cohort are quite meaningful, suggesting patients may have broader capability to maintain weight loss through low-dose medications, which may also apply to orforglipron—notably, Lilly's ongoing ATTAIN-MAINTAIN trial (expected to complete primary study in January 2026) is exploring maintenance treatment effects following injection therapy;

3) Goldman still believes there are clear differences in value positioning between oral VK2735 and orforglipron, making them not primarily direct competitors, as VK2735 focuses more on maintenance treatment, currently has no outcome data-related plans, and faces uncertainty in launch timing.

Since Lilly's stock price hit lows following the ATTAIN-1 trial data release, it has since rebounded approximately 14%, and Goldman believes the previous market reaction was somewhat excessive, with subsequent development paths depending on multiple dynamic events progressing before the end of 2025.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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