OPEC has partially dismissed market speculation about a significant production surge by its leader Saudi Arabia in June, with its latest monthly report indicating only a modest output increase. According to data compiled by the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, Saudi Arabia raised daily output by 173,000 barrels last month to an average of 9.356 million barrels per day. The Secretariat, which typically aggregates figures from external media sources and national advisors, suggested compliance with production quotas.

Following OPEC's rebuttal, Brent crude futures edged up 0.07% to around $69 per barrel. Market pessimism over a potential oil "supply glut" eased further after Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 price forecast, highlighting supply concerns outweighing recession risks. The Wall Street bank emphasized declining OECD oil inventories, shrinking spare capacity projections, and constraints on Russian energy output.

While Goldman Sachs and peers have long predicted Brent price declines due to oversupply expectations and dwindling spare capacity, institutions like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan forecast crude could fall to $60 or lower in Q4. Both project significant market surpluses persisting through 2026. JPMorgan maintains a commodities strategy favoring gold while shorting crude and base metals.

Contrasting data emerged from external agencies. S&P Global Commodity Insights and Argus Media reported figures substantially higher than OPEC’s 9.356 million barrel estimate. Unusually, OPEC’s report included an asterisked Saudi submission of 9.36 million barrels labeled "supply to market," while actual wellhead production stood at approximately 9.752 million barrels. The Secretariat requested external trackers to adopt this inventory-adjusted metric without explanation.

Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry acknowledged a "temporary" June output hike due to Middle Eastern supply disruptions but clarified most volumes entered reserves, leaving actual consumer supply minimal. Geopolitical tensions were further amplified by potential new U.S. trade tariffs threatening global demand.

OPEC maintained its 2023 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day—significantly higher than Goldman Sachs’ projections and exceeding International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates. Last week, the Paris-based IEA reported Saudi production quadrupled its OPEC quota amid heightened Gulf exports triggered by Israel-Iran tensions.