GF Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report stating that anti-involution and domestic demand recovery are two directions worth focusing on in the transportation industry.

First, anti-involution: E-commerce express delivery and chemical logistics are both expected to benefit from the implementation of overall anti-involution policies. Both express delivery unit prices and resource commodity prices are expected to bottom out and rebound, thereby improving the operations of related companies.

Second, domestic demand recovery: ①Oil and dry bulk: Higher capacity utilization rates before the peak season may provide greater confidence for high elasticity during the peak season. ②Aviation: Supply tightening combined with continuously declining oil prices is expected to further open up cost dividend space for airlines.

The main viewpoints from GF Securities are as follows:

**Shipping**: Combined with financial data from the first and second quarters of 2025, performance differentiation among various segments of the shipping market has intensified. Among them, container shipping prosperity has diverged, specialized vessels have performed brilliantly, while oil and dry bulk markets continue to face pressure. Looking ahead, in the short term, considering that oil and dry bulk sectors had relatively high capacity utilization rates during Q3 off-season this year, confidence in Q4 peak season elasticity realization is increasing, making peak season freight rates worth anticipating. In the long term, demand-side benefits for dry bulk shipping are gradually increasing, while supply-side rigidity remains unchanged, suggesting the long-cycle turning point may be approaching.

**Logistics**: In H1 2025, the express delivery industry was generally under pressure due to intensified competition, with companies showing slight differentiation based on different cost control capabilities. The industry's focus for the second half is on price increase implementation. With Q4 approaching peak season, price increases are expected to continue. In H1 2025, cross-border logistics and chemical logistics were generally under pressure due to low industry prosperity and fierce competition; while in bulk logistics, except for bulk supply chain enterprises, companies focused on transportation and warehousing faced fundamental pressure. In the second half, chemical logistics and bulk logistics similarly focus on anti-involution policies. Chemical logistics companies' inventory and capacity cycles resonate, bulk commodity prices rebound, driving sequential improvement in bulk logistics operations.

**Aviation**: In H1 2025, aviation continued to see volume growth and price decline. Declining oil prices combined with improved aircraft daily utilization rates released cost dividends, but pressure on ticket prices compressed profit margins. Major airlines' gross margins improved somewhat, while private airlines' gross margins declined slightly. On the expense side, RMB appreciated 0.41% year-on-year in H1 2025, compared to 0.62% depreciation in 2024, alleviating the industry's overall foreign exchange loss pressure. In terms of profits, among the three major airlines, Air China and China Eastern showed significant loss reduction effects, while only China Southern increased losses by 305 million yuan. Private airlines showed differentiation. In H1 2025, China Express Airlines achieved significant year-on-year growth in net profit to 251 million yuan due to increased government subsidies. Hainan Airlines achieved turnaround with net profit increasing to 57 million yuan, while Juneyao Airlines grew 3.29% year-on-year. Spring Airlines' net profit declined 14.11% year-on-year due to tax shield effects. Overall, the industry's profit performance trend is positive, consistent with market expectations for steady industry recovery.

**Airports**: First-tier airports saw steady passenger flow recovery, especially significant improvement in international routes, driving continuous year-on-year recovery in revenue and profits for airports in H1 2025.

**Infrastructure**: Second-tier infrastructure targets showed structurally better-than-expected performance, awaiting the bottoming out and recovery of bulk trade service nodes. For highways, first-tier companies generally met expectations, with Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure's performance recovery already initiated. Highway vehicle flow weak recovery has begun, with developed regions showing stronger resilience amid regional traffic flow differentiation.

**Ports**: First-tier targets maintained steady Q2 performance. **Railways**: Against the backdrop of slowing passenger and freight demand growth, Guangshen Railway's Q2 net profit increased 75% year-on-year.

**Risk Warning**: Significant economic volatility, geopolitical conflicts, deep recession in Europe and America, substantial oil and exchange rate fluctuations, large-scale natural disasters, etc.