On September 11, the US Dollar Index traded at 97.8223, down 0.0283%. In major currency pairs, EUR/USD was at 1.1697, GBP/USD at 1.3528, and USD/JPY at 147.3840.

The dollar weakened primarily due to an unexpected decline in the US August Producer Price Index (PPI). Data showed PPI fell 0.1% month-on-month, significantly below the expected 0.3% increase, with the annual rate also missing expectations. This increased market bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the CME "Fed Watch Tool" showing a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' revised employment data showed near-negative job growth over the past four months, indicating labor market strength far below previously reported levels, further clouding the dollar's outlook.

In the short term, the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will serve as a key catalyst for dollar movements, closely influencing subsequent market direction.

Wednesday's forex market closed with the Dollar Index at 97.84, up 0.07%; EUR/USD at 1.1695, down 0.13%; USD/JPY at 147.4623, down 0.04%; and USD/CNY at 7.1201, down 0.05%.

**Basic Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Market**

Factors affecting the foreign exchange market include the following aspects:

1. Data-wise, US August PPI annual rate came in at 2.6%, below the expected 3.3% and previous 3.1%; US August PPI monthly rate was -0.1%, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.7%. Yesterday's US data was notably weak, creating negative pressure on the dollar and positive momentum for gold, forex, and crude oil, though gold and silver faced reverse pressure.

2. The European Parliament's third-largest group, "Patriots for Europe," announced in Strasbourg, France on the 10th that it would table a motion of no confidence against the European Commission led by von der Leyen. The motion has reportedly secured signatures from 85 European Parliament members, exceeding the minimum threshold of 72 signatures required to initiate the procedure. The "Patriots for Europe" group accuses the current European Commission of comprehensive failure in trade, transparency, and accountability.

3. US August PPI data comprehensively missed expectations and unexpectedly turned negative month-on-month for the first time in four months, further supporting the case for Fed rate cuts. Following the data release, traders increased bets on a 50 basis point Fed cut in September. According to CME "Fed Watch," the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rose to 10%, with a 25 basis point cut at 90%. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is also pressuring the Fed for swift and significant rate cuts.

4. Recent data shows overseas "long money" is accelerating purchases of Chinese assets. US asset management giant Invesco's emerging market funds significantly increased holdings in JD.com, Yili, and Alibaba stocks in July; Goldman Sachs reports show domestic equity funds received net inflows of $6.55 billion over the past month, leading emerging markets; additionally, multiple China-focused ETFs listed overseas have seen growth in assets under management since the second half of the year.

Overall, the recent outlook suggests the Dollar Index is experiencing low-level oscillating rebounds, USD/CNY is under weak pressure, and non-USD currencies continue to face mild pressure.

The dollar shows mixed performance with limited volatility and lacks clear direction. Previously released data showing an unexpected decline in US August PPI further solidified market expectations that the Fed will restart rate cuts this month.

For intraday short-term outlook, non-USD currencies may continue rising, and the Dollar Index may face continued pressure; from a longer-term cycle perspective, the dollar's trend is viewed as bottoming out and rebounding, forming a medium to long-term bullish outlook.

**Technical Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Market**

**US Dollar Index** The Dollar Index has been under pressure and declining from its previous high of 110.18. Currently, the overall price has broken below and is trading under the MA250, maintaining low-level oscillation after touching a low of 96.37, showing a clear bearish trend. For intraday short-term action, a bearish oscillating decline is recommended.

**EUR/USD** EUR/USD has been building a base and rebounding from its previous low of 1.0177, rising through oscillations. Currently, EUR/USD is entirely trading above the MA250 daily moving average, showing a clear bullish trend. For intraday short-term action, a bullish oscillating upward move is recommended.

**USD/CNY** USD/CNY offshore rates, after creating a new high of 7.4287 on April 8, showed obvious pressure and decline. Currently, USD/CNY has broken below and is trading under the MA250 moving average. For intraday short-term action, a bearish oscillating decline is recommended.

**USD/JPY** USD/JPY continued its pressure and decline from the second rebound high of 158.8763, touching a low of 139.8880 before a weak rebound. Currently, the overall price is trading below the MA250 moving average, basically maintaining low-level oscillation in the short term. For intraday short-term action, a bearish oscillating decline is recommended.

Risk Warning: The above data is for reference only, and past performance does not predict future results! Investment involves risks, and market entry requires caution.