According to Southern Power Grid, since the "14th Five-Year Plan" period began, new energy installation capacity in the Southern Power Grid operating region has grown more than threefold, with wind power and solar photovoltaic becoming the largest power sources. On August 8, all 36 wind turbines of Phase I of the Jinshan Offshore Wind Farm project were successfully installed. The Jinshan Offshore Wind Farm Phase I project is the nation's first competitively allocated offshore wind power project priced below the coal benchmark tariff, featuring 36 wind turbines with a single unit capacity of 8.5 megawatts, making it currently Shanghai's largest single-unit capacity offshore wind farm.
From January to June 2025, China's new wind power installations reached 51.39GW, representing a 98.88% year-over-year increase compared to the same period in 2024. Total wind power generation reached 553.3 billion kWh, accounting for 11.43% of total social electricity consumption.
Citi points out that based on the latest industry data, China's new wind power installations have exceeded expectations. The full-year installation capacity is expected to grow 38% year-over-year to 120GW, while grid-connected capacity is also projected to surpass 100GW, higher than the previously forecasted 90GW.
Since Q4 2024, domestic onshore wind turbine bidding prices have continued to recover. Industry statistics show that from January to July this year, the average bidding price for onshore wind turbines reached 1,552 yuan/kW, representing a 9% increase compared to the full year 2024. However, related company stock prices have not fully reflected the significant profit elasticity potential that this strong pricing performance could bring to enterprises. Institutions believe this is mainly due to market concerns about demand uncertainty next year and the sustainability of this round of price increases, creating a significant expectation gap in the current market's view of the wind power sector, particularly the turbine manufacturing segment.
Wind data shows that as of August 12, among 11 listed wind power component companies that disclosed 2025 interim reports or performance forecasts, six achieved or are expected to achieve net profit growth exceeding 100%, demonstrating strong industry recovery momentum.
Industry experts indicate that the significant performance improvement of wind power component companies in the first half of the year resulted from the resonance of multiple factors including policies, market conditions, and pricing. As demand continues to be released and prices rebound from the bottom, industry profits are rapidly transmitting upstream along the industrial chain.
Securities analysts suggest that 2025 will see scale effects driving down cost expenses, while 2026 wind turbine manufacturing gross margin elasticity is expected to be significantly released. Considering the limited recovery in overall wind turbine average prices in 2024, manufacturing gross margin elasticity for turbine companies is expected to be relatively small in 2025. However, under the expectation of 30% industry installation growth in 2025, leading turbine companies' sales and administrative expense ratios are projected to decrease by 1-2 percentage points. As Q4 2024 and 2025 price increase orders gradually enter delivery and revenue recognition stages, there is strong confidence in significant improvement in turbine companies' manufacturing gross margins in 2026.
Compared horizontally with other segments of the wind power industrial chain, turbine segment valuations are generally lower. The core reason is that historically, the majority of turbine segment profits came from wind farm transfers and power generation business. As manufacturing business profit elasticity is released, the turbine segment is expected to achieve valuation restoration while improving performance.
**Wind Power Equipment Related Hong Kong Stocks:**
**GOLDWIND (02208)**: Citi expects wind turbine bidding prices to rise 10% within the year, projecting GOLDWIND's sales gross margin to improve from 4% in 2024 to 7% and 10% in the current and next year respectively. The bank also sees replacement demand as a new growth driver.
HSBC notes that GOLDWIND's H-share price has risen 74% since the first quarter earnings announcement, compared to the Hang Seng Index's cumulative gain of 13% over the same period, attributed to improved profit prospects and southbound capital inflows. Anticipating overseas order growth and higher business profit margins, the wind turbine manufacturing business fundamentals are expected to continue improving over the coming years. Profit forecasts for the company remain unchanged, with expectations that the wind turbine business may turn profitable in the first half of the year.