Capital Flows Surge into Gold Markets as BABA-W Fuels AI Momentum

Stock News
Sep 01

**Market Analysis** Ahead of major events, markets are fostering positive sentiment, with both mainland and Hong Kong markets showing strength. Hong Kong stocks gapped up 2.15% today. On Sunday, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit was successfully held, with leaders emphasizing the summit's important mission of building consensus, stimulating cooperation momentum, and charting development blueprints. Meanwhile, European Commission President von der Leyen stated in an interview that multiple European countries have finalized a "detailed roadmap" for deploying troops in Ukraine, with Trump promising to "provide backing." As Europe and the US remain mired in war, China focuses on peace and development, creating a clear contrast.

According to reports, last Friday, an appeals court ruled 7-4 that most of President Trump's global tariff policies were illegal. White House senior advisor Peter Navarro dismissed the court ruling as "biased and unfair." This reflects intense rivalry between Republicans and Democrats, making it challenging for Trump to overcome this hurdle. If unsuccessful, tariffs become meaningless. Europe is likely to actively push this matter as tariffs are unfavorable to them. However, hoping to declare Trump's tariffs illegal through legal means seems unlikely, with minimal probability of success.

Such US turmoil inevitably leads capital to seek new outlets. Combined with the Fed's September rate cut becoming a certainty, funds continue to target gold and other commodities, a sector repeatedly mentioned recently. Leading China Gold International surged 11% again, while Zijin Mining, featured as a September gold stock pick, rose nearly 9%. Other names including Zijin Mining and Chifeng Gold gained over 7%.

Previously mentioned AI sector cooled due to Cambricon's decline, but BABA-W's weekend earnings announcement reignited sentiment. Key highlights include cloud business revenue growing 26% year-over-year, AI-related revenue maintaining triple-digit growth for the eighth consecutive quarter, and Q2 capital expenditure rising to 38.6 billion yuan. More significantly, BABA-W developed a new generation AI inference chip through its Pingtouge semiconductor subsidiary. This chip aims to fill the gap left by Nvidia GPU restrictions in the mid-range market. The chip design is compatible with Nvidia's CUDA ecosystem and will be manufactured domestically. BABA-W surged over 18% today.

Undoubtedly, this manufacturing will likely go to SMIC. Currently, SMIC's A-shares are suspended, with expected suspension not exceeding 10 trading days. The reason is the company's plan to acquire minority stakes in its controlling subsidiary SMIC North Beijing through A-share issuance. The acquisition of remaining stakes primarily aims to facilitate orderly exit of state funds, benefiting the industry's healthy development. Only with future profitability will investors participate in capital raising, similar to Hua Hong Semiconductor's situation. SMIC rose nearly 5% today.

Additionally, the US removed Samsung, Intel, and SK Hynix's Chinese entities from the "Validated End User" authorization list. This essentially means these companies are directly ceding market share in China, accelerating domestic substitution benefits.

Tech giants continue increasing AI investments. According to statistics, BAT's combined Q2 capital expenditure reached 61.583 billion yuan, up 168% year-over-year and 12% quarter-over-quarter. Specifically: On August 29, BABA-W released Q2 results showing cloud business revenue of 33.398 billion yuan, up 26% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter. Single-quarter capital expenditure reached 38.676 billion yuan, up 220% year-over-year and 57% quarter-over-quarter, with both cloud revenue and capex significantly exceeding expectations. Tencent's single-quarter capital expenditure was 19.1 billion yuan, up 119% year-over-year.

Furthermore, China established a National AI Fund in January with total scale of 60.06 billion yuan, focusing on supporting startups. Subsequently, local governments and state banks launched respective funding programs, while cities released AI development plans as part of "AI+" initiatives.

China's massive AI investment stems from continuous application advancement and vast market size, with companies excelling at commercializing results. For instance, during the previous internet wave, while the US pioneered the technology, application-end giants like BAT and later TikTok all grew on Chinese soil. Therefore, new giants emerging under AI's new paradigm wouldn't be surprising.

AI+ sectors performed strongly today, with Mobvista gaining over 14% after reporting 41% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth in H1.

From sector perspective, innovative drugs mentioned in previous sessions remained robust, with continuous capital inflow being key. The Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF, the only ETF tracking the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index, received 1.541 billion yuan net inflows over 60 days, reaching 1.879 billion yuan in scale. Major constituents including Innovent Biologics, WuXi Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and CSPC Pharmaceutical all gained over 8%. Others include BeiGene and China Bio Pharmaceutical.

Robotics sector saw major news as Ubtech signed a strategic partnership agreement with Middle Eastern investment institution InfiniCapital. Under the agreement, InfiniCapital's high-tech fund provides Ubtech with $1 billion strategic financing credit facility through placement participation, convertible bond subscription, and cash withdrawal rights. Particularly, granting Ubtech $1 billion cash withdrawal rights creates a rapid financing channel, significantly enhancing major industrial layout capabilities. With Middle Eastern capital backing, the company can focus on R&D, with future catalysts depending on order momentum. The stock rose nearly 5% today. MicroPort Robotics also gained nearly 10%.

Innoscience also carries robotics concepts. Currently, the company collaborates with leading robotics enterprises and successfully launched the world's first gallium nitride robot. GaN robots using company chips are expected to exceed 10,000 units, with each robot requiring approximately 300 GaN chips. Combined with AI and robotics concepts, the stock surged over 12% again today.

Property stocks showed movement today, mainly on Fed September rate cut expectations and speculation about 5-year LPR reductions. CH OVS G OCEANS rose over 8%, with other names including SUNAC, LONGFOR GROUP, and CHINA OVERSEAS.

**Sector Focus** According to industry reports, tungsten concentrate prices surged 12,000 yuan in a single day, prompting downstream tool manufacturers to raise prices significantly. Tungsten concentrate price update: September 1 prices jumped 12,000 yuan daily, reaching 264,000 yuan/ton. July concentrate prices rose 23,000 yuan to 195,000 yuan/ton, with average prices up 34% year-over-year. August tungsten concentrate prices increased 57,000 yuan to 252,000 yuan/ton, with average prices up 56% year-over-year.

Tungsten concentrate price trends: Short-term, manufacturing industry approaches peak season, with demand growth supporting prices that tend to rise rather than fall. Recently, downstream tool manufacturers issued price increase notices, substantially raising product prices by 10-15%, basically covering raw material cost increases. Long-term, under current international political landscape, strategic mineral revaluation is irreversible, with tungsten prices likely maintaining high levels.

Key points: ①This tungsten price surge's core driver is supply tightness, not emotional speculation; ②Downstream tungsten industry chains transmit raw material costs through price increases, supporting tungsten prices. Even if tungsten prices retreat, they're expected to maintain high levels, with tungsten mining high profitability persisting long-term, supporting value revaluation.

Hong Kong stock exposure: Jiaxin International Resources is a Kazakhstan-based tungsten mining company focusing on developing Baktu tungsten mine, the world's largest open-pit tungsten trioxide mine with 227,300 tons WO₃ resources and globally largest single tungsten mine design capacity. Phase I production started April 2025, with H1 revenue of 126 million HKD, representing the only pure tungsten mining target in Hong Kong stocks. Other exposure includes CMOC.

**Individual Stock Analysis** CHINFMINING: Strong interim results with external M&A breakthroughs. Interim results showed revenue of $1.752 billion; net profit of $371 million, up 22.5% year-over-year; profit attributable to owners of $263 million, up 20.2% year-over-year.

Commentary: Established in 2011 through restructuring four Zambian copper companies, the company has developed into a globally leading vertically integrated copper producer. Strong interim performance mainly benefited from international copper price increases, increased production and sales of crude and anode copper from owned mines, and increased cathode copper production and sales. As of 2024 year-end, total ore resources reached 436 million tons, firmly positioned in the global first tier. From 2020-2024, self-produced copper metal output jumped from 99,000 tons to 159,000 tons, increasing over 60%.

During the period, from January-June 2025, cumulative crude and anode copper production was 111,283 tons, down 30.4% year-over-year; cumulative cathode copper production was 72,192 tons, up 15.6% year-over-year; cumulative cobalt hydroxide production contained 481 tons cobalt, up 1.7% year-over-year; cumulative sulfuric acid production was 538,433 tons, down 1.9% year-over-year; cumulative liquid sulfur dioxide production was 1,466 tons, down 85.5% year-over-year; cumulative toll processing of external copper products was 102,708 tons, up 152.9% year-over-year.

Additionally, the company made progress on multiple projects, including China Color Africa Mining development work, multiple renovation projects at Chambishi copper smelting, and Chambova Mining's hydrometallurgy plant optimization project. Notably, in June, the company announced subscription for partial stakes in Kazakhstan's Benkala copper mine, with plans for further acquisitions to achieve controlling interest. This represents a breakthrough in external M&A after many years. The company actively rewards shareholders by maintaining high dividend payout ratios.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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