On August 4th, gold experienced a bottom-fishing recovery last week, forming a V-shaped reversal pattern. Gold prices came under pressure from Monday to Wednesday, hitting a new monthly low. Although Thursday saw a stabilization, the rebound quickly encountered resistance and retreated. During Friday's Asian and European sessions, gold remained range-bound between $3,280-$3,300, under pressure until the US session opened. Gold then surged violently by over $50, strengthening further before the close, recovering all weekly losses and hitting a weekly high of $3,363. The short-term performance was exceptionally strong.

According to Wolfinance star analysts, gold's significant rally on Friday was primarily due to a dramatic shift in the main factor suppressing gold prices - Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Market sentiment experienced a complete reversal, driving gold prices higher. Specifically:

At the beginning of last week, the EU-US trade agreement reduced market risk-seeking demand while supporting the dollar, which pressured gold. Subsequently released US ADP data and second-quarter GDP data showed growth far exceeding market expectations and previous values. PCE data also rose, indicating employment resilience and persistent inflation. The Federal Reserve maintained unchanged rates, with the Fed Chair reiterating no rush to cut rates. All these factors dampened market expectations for a September Fed rate cut, pushing the dollar to further gains and a two-month high, continuing to pressure gold prices.

However, Friday's US session brought surprising non-farm payroll data, with the actual reading of 73,000 far below the expected 114,000. May and June employment figures were revised down by 285,000, meaning June added only 19,000 jobs and May only 14,000. The non-farm data suggested that Powell's Wednesday speech was somewhat outdated, and the job market was far from as solid as the Fed believed. Markets now believe a September Fed rate cut is back on the agenda, with latest data showing September rate cut probability rising to 82%. This dragged down the dollar and US bond yields significantly in a single day, driving gold's violent rally.

On the daily chart, gold's violent Friday rally reversed recent weakness, showing exceptionally strong short-term performance. For upside resistance, attention should be paid to the $3,375 level, where gold encountered resistance multiple times during mid and late July rebounds. Further strength could test the $3,400 round number. For downside support, focus on the weekly MA5 and MA10 averages near $3,350, followed by the daily Bollinger Band middle rail near $3,340 - also where gold gradually stabilized after Friday's US session breakout rally - and the daily 5-day moving average near $3,320. The 5-day moving average and MACD indicators show a death cross turning upward, KDJ indicators show a slight golden cross, and RSI indicators show a slight golden cross with minor downward movement. Short-term technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, but bulls haven't completely gained the upper hand yet.

Daily gold reference: US non-farm data disappointed significantly, performing well below market expectations, strengthening market expectations for a September Fed rate cut. The dollar and US bond yields fell sharply in a single day, driving gold prices to surge violently in the short term. Operationally, suggest treating with range-bound thinking, with downside support at $3,350 and $3,340, followed by $3,320, and upside resistance at $3,375, followed by $3,400.