The Federal Reserve is set to hold its policy meeting on October 28-29, yet critical economic data has been delayed due to a government shutdown, making the policy-making environment more ambiguous than ever. Key reports like non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and some inflation indicators have been postponed, leaving only corporate surveys and regional reports for guidance. Fed officials generally favor a cautious "slow and steady" approach, suggesting a potential 25 basis points rate cut to continue the easing cycle while avoiding directionality errors in this unclear context. The September meeting already saw one rate cut, and several officials noted that the current fundamentals show no significant changes from then, supporting a modest rate reduction in October. Chair Jerome Powell indicated that if the shutdown persists, it could not only delay releases but also hinder data collection, thereby increasing the complexity of decision-making. Governor Christopher Waller also mentioned that the lack of official data complicates assessments of whether the labor market is continuing to weaken, if demand is slowing, and the persistence of inflationary shocks, while private data holds limited value without benchmarks. He still believes that the current situation supports a rate cut to minimize the risk of misjudgment. Voices from regional Fed officials reflect this cautious rate-cut tone. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated on Friday that he would support a rate reduction if the labor market weakens further and inflation expectations remain anchored, but cautioned that the room for easing is limited as significant inflation has not yet subsided. He emphasized that tariffs will continue to elevate price pressures, with a gradual decline expected only by the second half of 2026. Boston Fed President Susan Collins previously acknowledged that while typically inflation calls for restraint and labor slowdown calls for easing, balancing these considerations becomes more challenging in the absence of data. Market analysts note that the current government shutdown may extend into November, potentially leading to a concentrated release of three months' worth of data by year-end, which could be crucial in determining whether to continue rate cuts through 2026. Historically, government shutdowns in the 1990s and 2010s forced the Fed to rely on informal information and adopt a careful pace. The current situation echoes this pattern, positioning the upcoming meeting more as a maintenance of the status quo rather than a declaration of direction.