Singapore's national wealth scale represents one of the most closely guarded secrets in the global financial world, but analysts' calculations suggest that the true size of the country's sovereign wealth fund GIC may far exceed public imagination.
The core clue of this analysis stems from Singapore's fiscal revenue item called "Net Investment Returns Contribution" (NIRC). This contribution essentially represents the annual "dividends" that Singapore's three major investment entities - Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC), Temasek, and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) - remit to the national treasury.
According to analysis, legal and financial professionals have calculated based on existing NIRC formulas and GIC's historical returns that assuming GIC's long-term real return rate is around 3%, its asset scale would need to reach $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion to achieve the current fiscal year's NIRC of approximately S$24 billion, which would make this fund the world's largest sovereign wealth fund.
GIC's exact asset scale has always been a state secret. Singapore's Ministry of Finance has stated:
"Just as our defense forces do not reveal the full extent of their weaponry and military capabilities, it would be unwise to reveal the full and exact quantum of our deployable resources."
NIRC: A Critical Pillar of Singapore's Finances
To understand GIC's potential scale, one must first comprehend NIRC's key role in Singapore's national finances.
This revenue accounts for approximately one-fifth of the Singapore government's total annual income, with its importance even exceeding income tax or value-added tax.
Data shows that since 2000, NIRC has consistently been a core pillar maintaining Singapore's fiscal health. Without including NIRC, Singapore's fiscal budget would average an annual deficit equivalent to 2.4% of GDP.
It is precisely this massive investment "dividend" from NIRC that enables Singapore to maintain fiscal surpluses. Therefore, the amount of NIRC has become the sole window for outsiders to glimpse the massive assets behind it.
How is GIC's Scale Calculated?
The calculation formula for NIRC contribution is written into Singapore's constitution, with its core logic simplified as: NIRC = (Relevant Net Asset Value × Expected Long-term Real Rate of Return) ÷ 2.
The "Relevant Net Asset Value" includes Temasek Holdings (S$434 billion), Monetary Authority of Singapore (S$58 billion), government deposits with MAS (S$93 billion), and GIC's net assets, minus total government liabilities of S$128.6 billion.
Based on known data, Temasek and MAS-related assets total approximately S$585 billion, with government liabilities at about S$128.6 billion. The largest variable in the formula is precisely GIC's undisclosed asset scale.
Another key unknown in the formula is the "Expected Long-term Real Rate of Return" (ELTRROR). The determination of this rate follows an extremely rigorous process, requiring recommendations from GIC, MAS, and Temasek boards, circulation through the Ministry of Finance, and final approval by the President after consulting the Council of Presidential Advisers.
Singapore's current President Tharman Shanmugaratnam previously served as Finance Minister, MAS Chairman, and GIC Deputy Chairman, making him intimately familiar with this process, though this has not increased its transparency.
Based on this semi-public formula, Withers KhattarWong law firm partner Lian Chuan Yeoh proposed a reverse-calculation method for GIC's scale.
Analysis shows that using GIC's self-published 20-year annualized real return rate of 3.8% as the ELTRROR reference value, achieving S$24 billion in NIRC would require GIC's asset scale to reach approximately $1.5 trillion. This figure already exceeds industry research institution GlobalSWF founder Diego Lopez's estimate of $936 billion and surpasses China's sovereign fund China Investment Corporation.
Using a more conservative return rate assumption, such as the 3% long-term real return rate considered reasonable by Norway's sovereign wealth fund, GIC's assets under management would need to reach a staggering $1.8 trillion.
More notably, next fiscal year's NIRC is projected to increase to S$27 billion, suggesting GIC's asset scale may have expanded further, or the government has adopted higher expected return rates.
Unresolved Questions
Despite the logical appearance of the above reasoning, it remains built on a series of assumptions.
S&P Global's chief Singapore sovereign analyst Rain Yin disclosed that S&P does not estimate GIC's assets in its rating model, only assuming its scale is "at least equivalent to the government's total debt stock."
Analysts also acknowledge their calculations may be "missing something," such as misunderstanding constitutional provisions or insufficiently accounting for returns from other assets.
When analysts sought confirmation from Singapore's Ministry of Finance, authorities did not reveal additional details.