According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report indicating that domestic heavy truck sales reached 85,000 units in July, representing a 46% year-on-year increase and a 13% month-on-month decline. Cumulative domestic heavy truck sales for January-July totaled 624,000 units, up 11% year-on-year. By the end of May, almost all provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions had completed the implementation of detailed truck trade-in policies. Consequently, from mid-to-late May through June and July, the policy's positive impact on new heavy truck purchase demand became steadily apparent. Combined with the sluggish heavy truck sales during the same period in 2024, this contributed to July's significant year-on-year growth in heavy truck sales. Focusing on natural gas heavy trucks, July saw domestic natural gas heavy truck sales of 12,000 units, down 7% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. The natural gas penetration rate for heavy trucks in July was 14%, while for semi-trailers it reached 27%.

Guotai Haitong's main viewpoints are as follows:

In terms of overall volume, domestic heavy truck sales in July reached 85,000 units, up 46% year-on-year but down 13% month-on-month. Cumulative domestic heavy truck sales for January-July totaled 624,000 units, representing an 11% year-on-year increase. By the end of May, detailed truck trade-in policies had been implemented in virtually all provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. Therefore, from mid-to-late May through June and July, the policy's stimulative effect on new heavy truck purchase demand became consistently evident. This, combined with the weak heavy truck sales performance during the corresponding period in 2024, jointly contributed to July's substantial year-on-year growth in heavy truck sales.

From a sales structure perspective, in July 2025, semi-trailers, freight trucks, and incomplete vehicles accounted for 50.1%, 28.0%, and 21.9% of total heavy truck sales, respectively, compared to 51.9%, 25.3%, and 22.7% in 2024, showing strengthened growth in heavy freight truck share.

Semi-trailers: July semi-trailer sales reached 43,000 units, up 29% year-on-year but down 12% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for January-July totaled 313,000 units, up 5% year-on-year.

Heavy freight trucks: July heavy freight truck sales reached 25,000 units, up 83% year-on-year but down 11% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for January-July totaled 175,000 units, up 24% year-on-year.

Heavy incomplete vehicles: July heavy incomplete vehicle sales reached 17,000 units, up 50% year-on-year but down 18% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for January-July totaled 136,000 units, up 12% year-on-year.

Focusing on natural gas heavy trucks, July domestic natural gas heavy truck sales reached 12,000 units, down 7% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. Cumulative domestic natural gas heavy truck sales for January-July totaled 100,000 units, down 14% year-on-year.

Natural gas semi-trailers: July domestic natural gas semi-trailer sales reached 12,000 units, down 8% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. Cumulative domestic natural gas semi-trailer sales for January-July totaled 96,000 units, down 15% year-on-year. The natural gas penetration rate for heavy trucks in July was 14%, while for semi-trailers it was 27%. Based on total lifecycle cost calculations for heavy trucks, for tractors with annual average mileage exceeding 150,000 kilometers, using natural gas is economically advantageous most of the time. Driven by large-scale equipment renewal policies, natural gas heavy trucks, as lower-cost equipment, are expected to see further penetration rate increases.

New energy heavy trucks: July domestic new energy heavy truck sales reached 13,000 units, up 159% year-on-year but down 10% month-on-month. Cumulative domestic new energy heavy truck sales for January-July totaled 88,000 units, up 172% year-on-year. The new energy penetration rate for heavy trucks in July was 16%, with the cumulative new energy penetration rate for January-July at 14%.

Investment Strategy and Recommendations: With economic recovery and the launch of heavy truck "trade-in" policies in 2025, domestic heavy truck sales are expected to gradually rebound, with projected 2025 sales of 1.067 million units, representing an 18% year-on-year increase. In recent years, domestic new energy heavy truck technology has gradually matured with rapidly declining costs, and domestic new energy penetration rates are expected to have considerable room for improvement, with the 2025 penetration rate projected to reach 15%. Guotai Haitong believes that growth opportunities still exist in the heavy truck industry, specifically manifested in domestic market recovery and continued export growth. Additionally, with the development of natural gas heavy trucks, rising industry barriers are expected to enhance leading companies' profitability. In terms of targets: recommend Weichai Power (000338.SZ), SINOTRUK (000951.SZ, 03808), CIMC Vehicles (301039.SZ), Foton Motor (600166.SH); beneficiary targets include FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ).

Risk Warning: Economic development may fall short of expectations, and raw material prices may rise significantly.