Everbright Securities has issued a research report maintaining its "buy" rating on GCL TECH (03800), citing the company's continued reduction in production costs and stabilizing recovery in industry chain prices. The firm anticipates that GCL TECH will be among the first silicon material companies to achieve profitability turnaround and generate excess returns.
The brokerage has adjusted its earnings forecast, projecting the company to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.01 billion yuan and 20.13 billion yuan for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively. With granular silicon products demonstrating increasing competitive advantages and promising technologies in silane gas, perovskite, and electronic-grade polysilicon expected to contribute new growth opportunities, Everbright Securities remains optimistic about the company's future prospects.
**Granular Silicon Cash Costs Continue Declining, Price Gap with N-Type Dense Material Gradually Narrowing**
In the first half of 2025, GCL TECH's average granular silicon production cash cost (excluding tax) reached 26.22 yuan/kg, with Q2 2025 recording 25.31 yuan/kg, representing a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1.76 yuan/kg. This marks five consecutive quarters of cost reduction since Q1 2024, positioning the company at industry-leading levels.
Despite some decline in granular silicon selling prices amid overall silicon material capacity oversupply, the price differential with N-type dense material is gradually narrowing. According to Infolink statistics, granular silicon transaction prices exceeded traditional N-type dense material for the first time in July 2025.
**Stable Customer Structure for Granular Silicon, Market Share Steadily Rising**
In the first half of 2025, GCL TECH's top five granular silicon customers accounted for 23%, 21%, 11%, 8%, and 7% of shipment volumes respectively, maintaining relatively stable structure. As granular silicon product quality and stability continue improving, market share has shown steady growth, reaching 24.3% in H1 2025, an increase of 7.2 percentage points compared to H2 2024.
**Continuous Improvement in Granular Silicon Quality, Accelerated Perovskite Commercialization**
Through ongoing technological research and process optimization, the company has enhanced granular silicon product quality. In H1 2025, approximately 95% of granular silicon products achieved total metallic impurity content of ≤0.5ppbw for five elements, with potential for further improvement. The company has essentially achieved turbidity levels below 100NTU across the board, with overall wire breakage rates comparable to rod-shaped silicon mass production levels.
Regarding perovskite technology, GCL Photovoltaic's GW-scale perovskite industrial base officially commenced production in June 2025. Large-format tandem perovskite modules have obtained TÜV Rheinland IEC61730 certification and passed TÜV Rheinland's 3x IEC stability testing.