Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs released a research report on Wednesday showing that the stablecoin market is entering a new expansion cycle, with potential scale reaching trillions of dollars. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that in the long term, the payments sector will become the core driving force for stablecoins to expand their Total Addressable Market (TAM). While current stablecoin applications are still dominated by cryptocurrency trading and overseas dollar demand, the penetration potential in payment scenarios has not been fully developed.

According to Goldman Sachs calculations, the global stablecoin market has reached $271 billion, with USDC issued by Circle Internet Corp. expected to benefit from legislative progress and ecosystem expansion. The report specifically mentioned that as the US stablecoin legislative framework becomes clearer, the cryptocurrency ecosystem will further mature. USDC is expected to increase its market share both within and outside the Binance platform through partnerships, with its scale projected to grow by $77 billion by the end of 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 40%.

Looking further ahead, the potential market space for stablecoins could reach trillions of dollars. Taking the payments sector as an example, Visa statistics show the global payments market is approximately $240 trillion annually, with consumer payments accounting for $40 trillion, B2B payments around $600 billion, and the remainder comprising P2P and daily expenditures. Although current stablecoin applications still focus mainly on cryptocurrency trading and overseas dollar demand, penetration into payment scenarios will constitute the core growth driver.

Since US stablecoins must maintain dollar or Treasury reserves at a 1:1 ratio, each stablecoin issuance will directly increase demand for corresponding reserve assets. This mechanism may have structural impacts on bond markets, especially short-term low-yield Treasuries. Research models from the Bank for International Settlements show that if funds flow into stablecoins by 2 standard deviations, it would cause 3-month US Treasury yields to decline by 2-2.5 basis points within 10 days. However, when funds flow out, the upward effect on yields can be two to three times the inflow impact, showing clear asymmetry.

This growth expectation is partially built on policy benefits. The GENIUS Act previously passed by the US White House provides crucial institutional support for the stablecoin market by coordinating state and federal regulatory rules.

Regarding market competition landscape, USDT issued by Tether still holds the top position in global stablecoin supply, but this token cannot directly serve US users due to regulatory restrictions. Second-ranked Circle is attempting to leverage new legislative benefits to expand USDC adoption under potentially continued crypto-friendly policies of a Trump administration. Mizuho Securities analysts also noted that as traditional financial institutions like US banks plan to issue their own dollar stablecoins, USDC's growth may face more intense competition.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino clearly stated last month that the company is developing strategies to enter the US market, attempting to break through current regulatory barriers.

Notably, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also holds an optimistic view on stablecoin market prospects. He previously stated publicly that stablecoin legislation backed by US Treasuries or short-term Treasury bills would create a massive market that not only consolidates the dollar's global reserve status but also drives related demand by expanding dollar usage. Bessent considers a $2 trillion market size a "very reasonable target," with actual scale potentially far exceeding this figure.

This view aligns with Goldman Sachs' long-term forecast, but the market has also noted that institutions like UBS have pointed out that stablecoins represent more of a fund format transformation rather than net demand growth, with their actual influence still requiring observation of fund flow direction and scale.

UBS analyst Paul Donovan pointed out that Bessent's logic of hoping stablecoins increase short-term Treasury demand to alleviate fiscal pressure has flaws: when investors sell Treasuries for stablecoins and then reinvest in Treasuries through stablecoins, it essentially doesn't create new demand but rather represents fund format transformation. This view contrasts with Goldman Sachs' optimistic expectations, highlighting market disagreement over stablecoins' actual impact.

Overall, the improvement of stablecoin regulatory frameworks and expansion of payment scenarios are reshaping the connection between cryptocurrencies and traditional finance. While their specific impact on Treasury markets still requires observation of fund flow direction and scale, policy promotion and technological potential have clearly positioned stablecoins at the core of digital financial innovation.