August 25 - Last Friday, ahead of the global central bank annual conference, multiple Federal Reserve officials' speeches supported a cautious rate-cutting stance, driving up the US dollar and Treasury yields while putting short-term pressure on gold prices. Markets were awaiting Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the central bank conference, as dovish comments could boost rate cut expectations and create opportunities for gold to rise, while hawkish remarks would weigh on gold prices. Trading recommendations focused on downside support at $3,325, followed by $3,311 and $3,300, with upside resistance at $3,345 and $3,358.

Looking at subsequent price action, during Friday's Asian session, gold fluctuated under pressure and fell to $3,325 where it stabilized. During European trading, gold tested lower multiple times but found support at the $3,325 level. At the US market open, gold briefly dipped to $3,321 before stabilizing and rebounding to $3,335. Gold then surged nearly $40, reaching a high of $3,378 before encountering resistance. Subsequently, gold traded in a high range, pulling back to a low of $3,359 before stabilizing, currently trading around $3,365. Overall, as market expectations for Fed rate cuts had cooled, gold faced pressure during Friday's Asian and European sessions. However, Powell's reinforcement of rate cut expectations during US trading directly drove gold's significant rally.

Analysts believe that previously, due to the 90-day extension of the US-China tariff truce, peace hopes emerging in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and cooling expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, gold prices had come under pressure and hit new August lows last week. However, with the Fed still having a high probability of cutting rates by 25 basis points in September and the Jackson Hole central bank conference approaching, investors were waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech, keeping market sentiment relatively cautious and limiting further gold declines.

On Friday, Powell stated at the global central bank conference that the US labor market faces downside risks, increasing the risk of economic downturn. If these risks materialize, the Fed may need to ease labor market pressure through rate cuts. This strengthened market expectations for Fed rate cuts in September, significantly increasing the possibility of consecutive rate cuts this year. The dollar and Treasury yields fell sharply in a single day, creating opportunities for gold to rise.

On the daily chart, gold rebounded from August lows last week, with the rebound trend continuing on Monday and hitting new two-week highs, showing strong short-term momentum. For gold's downside support, focus on the intraday low of $3,359, which was also the resistance level for gold's rebound last week before Friday's surge, followed by the daily Bollinger Band middle rail at $3,348, which is also the current weekly MA10 moving average position. For upside resistance, watch Monday's high at $3,378, with further strength potentially testing the $3,400 round number. The 5-day moving average and MACD indicator are beginning to form golden crosses, while KDJ and RSI indicators show golden crosses, indicating that the technical outlook shows bulls gaining advantage after gold's stabilization and rebound.

Daily gold trading reference: Fed Chairman Powell released dovish signals, strengthening September rate cut expectations, with the dollar and Treasury yields falling sharply in a single day, creating opportunities for gold to rise. Trading approach suggests range-bound thinking, with downside support at $3,359, followed by $3,348, and upside resistance at $3,378, followed by $3,400.