Since August, apple futures prices have experienced a round of gains before entering high-level consolidation. As of Tuesday's close, the main contract AP2510 settled at 8,124 yuan/ton, down slightly by 0.23%. Currently, the market is at a critical transition period between the tail end of old season apple inventory clearance and the imminent launch of new season late-ripening Fuji apples.

According to a senior apple market analyst at SCI Consulting, Yang Jun, early-ripening apples from the new season are gradually entering the market, mainly paper-bagged Gala apples. Purchase prices in Shaanxi and Gansu production areas are significantly higher than the same period in previous years. Meanwhile, old season apples in cold storage are showing weak performance, with low purchasing enthusiasm from traders and continuously declining prices. New and old season apple prices present a clear "tale of two extremes" pattern, and market expectations for the opening prices of late-ripening Fuji apples have risen accordingly.

"Currently, old season apples in cold storage are mainly concentrated in Shandong production areas, with very limited remaining inventory in other production regions," Yang Jun stated. Since July, old season apples in cold storage have continued to perform poorly with declining prices. As of late August, the weighted price for Grade I and II inventory above 80# in Shandong production areas was 3.73 yuan/jin, a decline of 0.41 yuan/jin compared to early July, representing a cumulative drop of 9.90%, and a decline of 0.46 yuan/jin compared to early May. Storage operators' profit margins have been further compressed. While medium and small fruits and standard grade products still maintain reasonable profit margins, high-quality inventory and large fruits above 85# have seen severely reduced profit margins.

Regarding the reasons for the continued decline in old season apple prices in cold storage, Yang Jun explained: First, the impact of seasonal fruits - this year's abundant lychee harvest resulted in significantly lower selling prices than the same period in previous years, creating substantial impact on the apple market. Second, inventory has certain profit margins, making storage operators more willing to ship. Third, this year's Mid-Autumn Festival falls on October 6th, during which new season Fuji apples will gradually supply the market, leaving old season Fuji apples with insufficient subsequent demand.

In contrast, early-ripening apple varieties have maintained strong performance this year. Starting with Chenyang, Qinyang and other early varieties, early-ripening apple prices have consistently remained at relatively high levels. Yang Jun noted that after paper-bagged Gala apples entered the market, opening prices were generally higher than the same period last year, with increases of 0.3-0.4 yuan/jin. High-quality fruit prices remained stable at high levels, with later-launching production areas also showing similarly high opening prices. In recent days, paper-bagged Gala apples in Jingning, Gansu have gradually entered the market, with mainstream prices starting at 70# ranging from 5.0-5.3 yuan/jin, approximately 1.0 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year.

However, Yang Jun mentioned that weather conditions have made apple coloring more difficult, with most inventory showing insufficient redness. Due to drought and other issues, the problem of smaller fruit sizes has become quite prominent. Since early-ripening apples have a lower proportion of high-quality fruit and old season apples in cold storage have higher defect rates, plus market demand for trying new season produce, traders show significantly higher purchasing enthusiasm for new season apples compared to old season cold storage inventory.

"As new season early-ripening apple procurement proceeds, market expectations for opening purchase prices of late-ripening Fuji apples are gradually increasing, with this situation being more pronounced in Northwest production areas," Yang Jun stated. This is based on several factors: First, high prices for early-ripening apples may drive similarly high prices for late-ripening apples. Second, early-ripening apples entering the market show quality deficiencies and smaller fruit size issues, raising market concerns that late-ripening Fuji apples may face similar problems. Third, the later timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival means market demand during the holiday will drive early procurement prices for new season late-ripening Fuji apples. Fourth, storage operators from the previous production season generally achieved substantial storage profits, especially in Northwest production areas with significant profit margins, which will to some extent boost traders' purchasing enthusiasm. "Based on current market conditions, opening prices may be 0.3-0.5 yuan/jin higher than last year, with some production areas potentially showing even larger price differences," he believes.

Agricultural products analyst at Guosen Futures, Li Jingyi, believes that apple futures prices may show a "rise first, then fall" trend in the later period. This year, Gala apples in Shaanxi production areas have smaller fruit sizes with a lower proportion of high-quality fruit, and high-quality fruit order prices remain at high levels. Additionally, new season apple bagging quantities are slightly lower than the previous production season, and early-ripening apple procurement prices in Northwest production areas are higher than the same period last year, which may provide some support for late-ripening Red Fuji opening prices. The probability of futures maintaining high levels during procurement season is relatively high. However, as procurement concludes, market trading logic will shift toward the demand side, and downstream consumption conditions will become key factors affecting apple futures price trends.