UBS Expects Positive Market Reaction to SAMSONITE's (01910) Q4 Sales Growth Outlook and Margin Confidence

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SAMSONITE (01910) reported a Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $143 million, down 8% year-on-year, in line with UBS's estimate of $139 million. The EBITDA margin stood at 16.3%, slightly above the bank's forecast of 16.1%. Net sales growth slowed significantly, declining 1% year-on-year on a constant-currency basis, though this marked an improvement from Q2's 6% drop, partly due to a low base effect.

UBS noted that SAMSONITE is trading at a forward P/E of 10.2x, still 1.3 standard deviations below its historical average. The bank is currently reviewing its investment rating and target price for the stock, previously set at "Neutral" with a target of HK$17.4.

Management highlighted sustained positive revenue momentum into October and expects further improvement in Q4 net sales growth despite a high base. Gross margins are projected to remain stable at 59.6%, supported by a favorable product mix shift toward Tumi and direct sales channels, as well as effective measures to mitigate U.S. tariff impacts. The company also plans to pursue a dual listing next year, contingent on market conditions.

UBS anticipates the market will react positively to SAMSONITE's better-than-expected Q4 sales growth outlook and management's confidence in maintaining profitability.

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