Nobel Prize Ignites Trillion-Dollar Track, US Stocks Surge Over 300%, Quantum Field Approaches Commercialization Inflection Point

Deep News
Oct 13

The quantum mechanics track that has produced 26 Nobel Prize winners is going wild.

In 1925, Heisenberg published "Quantum-theoretical re-interpretation of kinematic and mechanical relations," marking the beginning of modern quantum mechanics. In 2025, exactly one hundred years later, the Nobel Prize in Physics once again goes to three quantum physicists, recognizing their research achievements in discovering macroscopic quantum tunneling and energy quantization in superconducting circuits.

In the glorious history of the Nobel Prize spanning over a century, quantum mechanics has always been a "Nobel Prize concentration camp." According to statistics, the quantum mechanics field has historically had 26 winners, accounting for 11.3% of the total Nobel Prize physics winners, slightly lower than condensed matter physics at 18.3% and astrophysics at 11.7%.

Nobel Physics Committee Chairman Olle Eriksson stated that day: "For a hundred years, quantum mechanics has continuously brought new surprises. It is very useful and provides the foundation for digital technology."

The announcement of the Nobel Prize in Physics has injected a strong boost into the development of quantum technology against the backdrop of artificial intelligence. The research of these three physicists not only laid the theoretical foundation for quantum computing but also became a key turning point for quantum technology to move from laboratories to industrial applications.

For domestic and international quantum technology companies, in recent years, policy benefits and capital investment have led quantum technology companies to launch a financing boom, with the quantum computing industry entering a fast development track.

**Policy Escort, Quantum Computing Advances by Leaps and Bounds**

A review of quantum computing-related policies reveals that as early as 2016, in the "13th Five-Year Plan for National Strategic Emerging Industry Development," China proposed to "coordinate the layout of key technology research and development in quantum chips, quantum programming, quantum software, and related materials and device preparation, promoting the physical realization of quantum computers and the application of quantum simulation."

In the same year, multiple local provinces and cities emphasized developing quantum computing and future industries in their government work reports.

More frequent policy output and technical discussions in the quantum computing field have significantly increased after 2020. In terms of policy, the "14th Five-Year Plan" lists quantum information as one of eight frontier fields. The "Government Work Report" mentioned quantum computing in both 2024 and 2025, calling it one of three future industries alongside atomic-level manufacturing and clean hydrogen, meaning quantum computing has become an important direction for future industry development and is in a strategic high position.

In terms of technology, the Zhongguancun Forum, as China's national-level platform for global scientific and technological innovation exchange and cooperation, established the "Quantum Technology Development and Future Forum," with discussions gradually unfolding around key technical directions in quantum technology fields such as photonic quantum, ion trap, and superconducting.

Meanwhile, the Quantum Computing Conference, established in 2022, focuses on quantum computing hardware and software, algorithms, application ecosystems, and education, and has now become an exchange platform covering theoretical research, engineering implementation, and industrial applications.

At this year's fourth Quantum Computing Conference, the "2024-2025 CQCC Quantum Computing Industry Report" was officially released, summarizing the current development of China's quantum computing field.

Regarding talent cultivation in quantum computing, the Ministry of Education issued a notice in 2021 to add quantum information science-related majors to cultivate professional talent.

This shows that the development blueprint for quantum technology was drawn up ten years ago, and now, under the policy moat, the industry has entered a rapid development stage.

**Capital Entry, Primary and Secondary Market Celebration Symphony**

Since 2025, quantum computing-related company financing has been in full swing in the primary market, and the secondary market is also celebrating stock price increases. Surprisingly, this trend is not limited to the domestic market.

Internationally, especially in July this year, US quantum computing company Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) and quantum encryption technology company Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ) saw strong stock price upward momentum, hitting new highs for the year and approaching historical peaks.

QUBT rose from a low of $4.37 per share on March 14 to a high of $21.88 per share on July 11, an increase of 304.41%. ARQQ's lowest stock price performance in the past six months was $11.04 per share, while on July 22, ARQQ's stock price rose to $50.21 per share, also achieving a stunning increase of 354.80%.

As of this month, QUBT's secondary market stock price is generally in an upward trend, but ARQQ's performance has been mediocre.

Additionally, the US quantum computing sector collectively erupted in May. Leading stock IonQ rose nearly 37% in a single day, while D-Wave, Rigetti, and others also saw gains exceeding 20%.

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chattejee stated in a recent in-depth report on quantum computing that quantum computing is expected to benefit from massive investment, with global public investment expected to reach $45 billion in 2025 alone.

The report states that governments worldwide not only view quantum technology as a key area for innovation but also invest substantial resources to accelerate its development. Government commitments provide favorable signals to businesses and investors, indicating that quantum technology is expected to become a cornerstone of future technological progress and economic growth.

In comparison, there are fewer publicly listed quantum technology companies domestically. Besides the already listed Quantum CTek, as of now, Nation Shield Quantum and Origin Quantum are in the listing guidance stage, with more startups in the financing process.

This year, investment and financing in the quantum computing field has been active. By the end of the third quarter, 14 related domestic companies completed 16 rounds of financing, covering different rounds from angel to Series A, B, and C.

Among them, AtomQuantum and Bose Quantum have each completed two rounds of financing. AtomQuantum has both atomic quantum computing and quantum precision measurement R&D and industrialization capabilities, focusing on original innovation and technology development in quantum technology, with core products including the Hanyuan-1 atomic quantum computer and portable atomic quantum gravimeter.

Bose Quantum, which has also completed two rounds of financing, is a hard-tech company specializing in photonic quantum computing. In April this year, it released a new generation 1000-qubit coherent photonic quantum computer, with overall technology at the world's leading level. It has established photonic quantum laboratories in Tianjin, Suzhou, and other places, conducting application exploration and real machine testing in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, finance, pharmaceuticals, and other fields.

**Giants Enter, Competition Intensifies**

The policy moat and strong capital foundation provide favorable conditions for quantum technology development. In recent years, technical breakthroughs in quantum computing have continuously emerged domestically and internationally.

Internationally, Google's Willow quantum chip achieved a scalable quantum error correction system last December, capable of solving problems in 5 minutes that would take traditional supercomputers billions of years, while reducing error rates to 0.1%.

Additionally, Canadian quantum computing company D-Wave announced in March this year that its quantum computer outperformed traditional supercomputers when solving complex magnetic material simulation problems.

Domestically, technical breakthroughs in quantum computing are frequently reported. As early as 2016, China successfully launched the world's first quantum science experimental satellite "Micius," becoming one of the top ten science and technology news of the year.

The successful launch of "Micius" was China's first realization of quantum communication between satellite and ground, helping China maintain and expand its international leading position in the overall level of quantum communication technology practicality.

In March this year, the 105-qubit superconducting quantum computer "Zu Chongzhi No. 3" developed by the original team at the University of Science and Technology of China achieved rapid solving of "quantum random circuit sampling" tasks.

"Zu Chongzhi No. 3" processes quantum random circuit sampling problems at a speed one million trillion times faster than the fastest supercomputers, and one million times faster than Google's 67-qubit superconducting quantum processor "Sycamore" released in October last year.

In terms of commercialization, China's third-generation autonomous superconducting quantum computer "Origin Wukong" has been deployed in multiple locations. Guo Guoping, the chief person in charge of the Origin Wukong development team, stated in a media interview: "The commercial use of 'Origin Wukong' in multiple domestic locations marks that China has quantum computer commercialization operation capabilities, becoming an important participant in the global quantum computing field."

Tasks that traditional supercomputers take 300 hours to complete, the "Origin Wukong" quantum computer can solve in just a few seconds. The deployment of "Origin Wukong" opens broad prospects for large-scale application of quantum computing technology in China and industrial ecosystem construction.

While technology continues to advance, competition between domestic and international companies in quantum computing is becoming increasingly fierce. Large-scale investment and financing activities and M&A behavior have added heat to the quantum computing industry, with NVIDIA's entry adding even more attention to quantum computing.

According to foreign media reports, in May this year, NVIDIA engaged in deep negotiations and ultimately invested in quantum computing startup PsiQuantum. This round was led by BlackRock with NVIDIA participating, and PsiQuantum ultimately raised $750 million.

After this round of financing, PsiQuantum's valuation reached $6 billion, potentially becoming the world's highest-valued quantum computing startup. This is NVIDIA's first direct investment in a quantum computing hardware company.

Meanwhile, US quantum computing company IonQ announced the acquisition of UK-based Oxford Ionics for $1.075 billion. In August this year, IonQ completed $1 billion equity financing pricing, exclusively subscribed by Heights Capital Management.

IonQ President and CEO Nicolo de Masi stated, "This may be the largest single-institution common stock investment in quantum industry history, fully validating our technical strength, recent acquisition results, and talent reserves."

Earlier in mid-July, the US and Israel planned to establish a $200 million quantum joint fund. The establishment of this fund will leverage Israel's quantum technology advantages and Gulf energy infrastructure to strengthen regional relations. The US-Israel cooperation also plans to invite countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia to participate.

**Quantum-AI Integration, Facing New Industry Blue Ocean**

The rapidly developing artificial intelligence is another important factor driving quantum computing development. AI and quantum computing present a mutually dependent and symbiotic development relationship, as previously stated by Chinese Academy of Engineering academician Dai Qionghai in a media interview.

On one hand, as large model training requirements increase, the demand for higher-performance, faster computing power also increases. Quantum computers are expected to break through current AI model training computing power bottlenecks and improve algorithm efficiency.

On the other hand, artificial intelligence can reversely empower quantum technology in quantum control, error correction, and algorithm design, providing new paths for quantum system stability and scalability. The two form a synergistic relationship of integrated development.

"Quantum-AI integration" can be called the new blue ocean of the current quantum computing industry, as previously stated by Sun Xiaoming, a researcher at the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, in a media interview.

Over the past five years, the explosion of generative AI has highlighted the disruptive development of computing models. Sun Xiaoming believes that in the next five years, quantum computing is likely to move from laboratories to applications. Therefore, the integration of artificial intelligence and quantum computing becomes an inevitable trend.

"The core of quantum-AI integration is not unidirectional technology stacking, but horizontal connections across multiple fields and disciplines, achieving nonlinear growth through collaborative innovation," Dai Qionghai stated.

**Commercialization Landing Still Needs 5-10 Years**

Although quantum computing is accelerating development domestically and internationally, the differences and risks involved cannot be ignored.

From a technical perspective, according to the "2025 Quantum Computing Industry Status and Development Trend Analysis" previously released by China Industry Research Institute, quantum computing practicality still faces three core challenges: quantum error correction efficiency, low-temperature environment control, and software ecosystem construction.

Constrained by technical conditions, quantum computers are currently still in the "scenario verification" stage. Quantum Technologies CEO Xiang Jingen frankly stated: "A strict 'practicality' standard for quantum computing is that quantum computers' cost-effectiveness in solving industrial problems must exceed traditional supercomputers, but this hasn't been achieved yet."

Therefore, despite quantum computing's broad prospects, the entire industry still has a long way to go before reaching true "practicality."

Google CEO Sundar Pichai previously stated: "Achieving 'practically usable' quantum computers still needs 5 to 10 years."

This shows that despite continuous technical breakthroughs and innovation achievements in quantum computing, application-side challenges remain numerous.

Additionally, capital market bubbles and valuation disconnection are problems that current quantum computing companies face in secondary markets. According to Business Research Insights data, the global quantum computing market was valued at $300 million in 2024 and is expected to reach $4.91 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 35.2% from 2025 to 2033.

US quantum computing company Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) has a market value as high as $2.6 billion, but its Q1 2025 revenue was only $39,000; Arqit Quantum Inc. (ARQQ)'s situation is also not optimistic, with H1 2025 revenue of only $67,000.

The serious disconnection between quantum computing companies' market values and revenues represents typical performance of market frenzy and high expectations coexisting. While technological innovation and market prospects raise expectations, they may also lead to severe short-term corrections.

Additionally, according to a McKinsey report, by 2025, if no major intervention measures are taken, quantum computing job fill rates will be less than 50%. Talent shortage becomes another challenge facing the quantum computing industry.

"Quantum technology often involves interdisciplinary technology intersections, and the talent vacuum at intersection points is an obstacle that industry development needs to resolve," Beijing Academy of Quantum Information Sciences researcher Jin Yirong previously stated regarding industry talent shortage challenges. Short-term applications require deep integration and collaborative work between quantum computing and classical computing, but talent proficient in both classical and quantum computing is very scarce, affecting the progress of quantum-classical computing integration.

Coexisting opportunities and challenges become the most distinctive footnote of current quantum computing industry development. How to break through facing challenges, innovate technology, land applications, and create industry-leading, globally-leading quantum technology companies is a common topic left for domestic enterprises.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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