Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report stating that the food and beverage sector is experiencing cyclical opportunities from both supply-side and demand-side clearing. Performance advantages of beverage, snack, and raw material growth stocks are becoming prominent, with cost advantages and competitive landscape optimization trends continuing. White wine expectations are accelerating correction, and the sector simultaneously offers both growth and defensive allocation opportunities.
Key viewpoints from Guotai Haitong Securities are as follows:
White Wine: Balance sheet clearing, liquor companies actively seeking transformation. In Q2 2025, high-end/sub-high-end/regional white wine revenues grew by +3%/-5%/-27% year-over-year respectively, with net profits changing by +1%/-19%/-42% respectively. The consumption environment has suppressed industry demand, with May's black swan event intensifying adjustment magnitude and accelerating industry destocking. The firm believes that in the existing competitive environment, industry market share logic continues to play out. Liquor companies are choosing to embrace product innovation and channel transformation to seek incremental growth. Some high-end liquor brands maintain revenue growth through continuous channel balancing, though companies' actual cash receipts perform weaker than reported revenues. Meanwhile, liquor companies are increasing innovation efforts. Wuliangye launched the new product "29° Love at First Sight" on August 29, with concepts, design, liquor body, marketing, and pricing comprehensively catering to young consumers' preferences. The product gained rapid momentum within just over a week of launch, with sales expected to reach tens of millions of yuan, potentially becoming an important product for the company's youth-oriented, fashionable, and international strategy implementation.
Mass Market Products: Differentiated performance with coexistence of growth and defensive characteristics. Growth sectors achieved structural growth, with beverages performing excellently, beer maintaining stability, snacks showing significant differentiation, seasoning leading companies highlighting advantages, and dairy products showing marginal improvement. The beer sector maintained stable prosperity during peak season, relatively less affected by policies and consumption environment, with cost advantages and competitive landscape optimization trends continuing, profit margins reaching new highs, and expected to maintain or increase dividends. The firm believes mass market growth stock opportunities coexist with defensive allocation opportunities.
Risk factors: Intensified industry competition, food safety risks, etc.