On September 8, POP MART (09992.HK) fell as much as 8.85% during trading, closing at HK$287.6 per share, down 7.11% for the day, with market capitalization declining by HK$29.545 billion compared to the previous trading session.
Notably, Hang Seng Indexes Company announced on the same day that POP MART would be included in the Hang Seng Index, expanding the constituent stocks from 85 to 88, with the adjustment taking effect from September 8. However, this positive news failed to reverse the stock's downward trend.
In fact, since reaching a historical high of HK$339.8 per share on August 26, POP MART's stock price has cumulatively retreated 11.94%, while the Hang Seng Index only declined 0.76% over the same period. Behind the stock pressure, POP MART's core IP Labubu has seen continuous price corrections in the secondary market, with first to third generation products falling 3-11 yuan in a single day, and the fourth generation mini Labubu's average secondary market transaction price shrinking by over 50% compared to the initial launch period.
On August 28, POP MART launched the fourth generation mini Labubu series online, priced at 79 yuan each, divided into A/B groups at 1,106 yuan per group, each containing 14 regular items and 1 hidden item, with a probability of 1:168 for drawing the hidden item.
On the launch day, the series immediately triggered a buying frenzy, with product links on multiple platforms quickly selling out. Secondary market prices for complete boxes (14 pieces) once soared to 3,200 yuan, with hidden items trading close to 1,000 yuan. Some sellers inflated individual prices to 300 yuan through "proxy purchasing" services, with complete set proxy fees reaching as high as 2,699 yuan, double the official retail price.
However, the enthusiasm did not last long. As of September 8, data from the Dewu app platform showed that the average transaction price for mini Labubu was 107 yuan, with complete box (14 pieces) prices falling back to 1,446 yuan. While still commanding a premium, this represents a significant decline of over 50% compared to the early launch period.
Additionally, according to public reports, some scalpers have announced strategy adjustments on social platforms, stating they are "temporarily suspending Labubu series acquisitions due to overall price declines and need to wait for market stabilization signals." Data from the Xianyu platform shows Labubu's average transaction price over the past 7 days was 105 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous week, with 67% of users believing prices will continue to fall, while 33% hold the opposite view.
"Price self-weakening may trigger continued decline," noted economist Pan Helin, pointing out that toy companies' stock prices correlate with product market demand. The current Labubu situation involves irrational bubbles, where prices have both self-reinforcing and self-weakening functions, so once prices enter a downward trend, the decline could be endless.
Pan Helin reminded that while inclusion in the Hang Seng Index brings positive allocation from index funds, stock prices driven up by capital are difficult to sustain. He emphasized that all IPs have life cycles, and the key lies in continuously producing new IPs. The toy market's value support needs to shift toward multiple dimensions, with companies needing to open supply to meet different enthusiasts' needs and continuously produce and operate new IPs. Ultimately, company stock prices still need to be supported by performance.
A research report mentioned that POP MART's tiered IP matrix is gradually taking shape, with the IP platform showing initial form, while successfully creating the world-class IP Labubu offers long-term commercial potential. However, it also warned of potential risks including content IP derivative development lagging behind creative empowerment, IP copyright holders' content development failing to continuously capture consumer attention, or insufficient space for new derivative SKU launches, which could lead to declining product sales.