Gold Market Trend Analysis: Fundamental drivers took center stage on July 16 as the US Labor Department's June CPI release at 20:30 Beijing time triggered immediate market recalibrations. The Dollar Index (DXY) dipped 16 points post-announcement, reflecting dovish interpretations of core CPI falling slightly below projections. Spot gold jumped $6 within minutes, signaling fleeting safe-haven demand resurgence. With near-certainty of unchanged Fed rates in July, September rate-cut possibilities remain viable following tame core CPI readings. Traders now scrutinize upcoming July CPI and PCE data for sustained inflation signals.
Technically, gold retreated after testing the 3375 resistance zone yesterday, closing with a bearish candle that interrupted three consecutive bullish sessions. Our early 3344 long position anticipates bullish resumption today, targeting 3400 upon breaching 3375. The ascending daily moving averages maintain upward bias, but momentum must materialize promptly to avoid reversal risks. Key support clusters near the MA5 and mid-Bollinger Band around 3320-3300. European session's failed breakout led to US-hour retests of MA5 support. Trading strategy favors long positions near mid-Bollinger support with resistance at 3365-3375, while avoiding chase-ups near the tightening Bollinger Band's upper boundary. Intraday tactics suggest primary longs near 3320-3310 supports, with secondary shorts near 3350-3360 resistances.
Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis: Fundamentally, Brent crude edged down 5 cents to $69.16/bbl while WTI slipped 9 cents to $66.89 during Tuesday's US session, extending Monday's $1+ declines. Geopolitical uncertainty dominated price action after the US issued Russia a 50-day Ukraine peace ultimatum threatening sanctions on Russian oil buyers. Early price surges reversed as market skepticism grew regarding sanction implementation feasibility, particularly given proposed grace periods.
Technically, daily charts show crude testing the $78 region before forming a substantial bearish candle that preserved its moving average support structure. Though medium-term uptrend remains intact, bearish MACD crossovers above zero indicate weakening momentum, suggesting high-range consolidation ahead. The hourly chart reveals a false breakout above 68.20 resistance, with prices collapsing toward range support. Downward momentum strengthened as MACD pierced below zero, confirming the intraday bearish shift. Given crude's characteristic volatility, range-bound trading appears likely. Today's strategy prioritizes shorts near 69.0-70.0 resistance with secondary longs near 65.0-64.0 support.
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