CICC has upheld its Non-GAAP net profit projections for Bilibili (09626, BILI.US) through 2025 and 2026. Currently, the Hong Kong-listed shares trade at 29.3x and 21.9x 2025/26 Non-GAAP P/E multiples respectively, while U.S. shares command 28.4x and 21.2x valuations. The investment firm reaffirmed its "Outperform" industry rating.
Driven by AI integration potential and fresh gaming pipeline developments, CICC elevated target P/E multiples for Hong Kong/U.S. shares to 33x/25x. This adjustment translates to a 9.7% and 8.7% target price hike for Hong Kong/U.S. shares, reaching HK$193 and $25 respectively. These targets suggest upside potential of 12.3% and 16.5%.
Key insights from CICC's analysis include:
Recent corporate developments saw Bilibili host its 2025 Investor Day in Shanghai on July 11, featuring in-depth discussions on gaming strategy, advertising evolution, monetization pathways, and AI implementation. Concurrently, the BilibiliWorld 2025 carnival (BW2025) launched at Shanghai's National Exhibition Center.
Commercialization initiatives show strong momentum across key segments: 1) Gaming: The company pursues dual strategies of "genre rejuvenation" and "IP cultivation," driving continuous innovation through gaming-anime-creator synergies. Market watchers should monitor the mini-program and overseas launches of "Three Kingdoms: Strategic Supremacy" during late 2025-2026, alongside development milestones for self-developed titles like "Code: Three Kingdoms Ncard" and "Escape from Yakoff," plus licensed game "Dudu Face Mischief." 2) Advertising: Anchored in its "horizontal foundation, vertical expansion" approach, Bilibili anticipates outpacing industry advertising growth for three consecutive years. Ad penetration and conversion efficiency metrics show promising trajectories. 3) Diversified monetization: Beyond traditional revenue streams, the platform explores novel content-based premium services. 4) AI integration: Machine learning enhances ad targeting through recommendation algorithms and creative automation. Current AI applications span real-time translation broadcasting, comprehensive search functions, comment analysis, and content moderation systems.
Business segment analysis reveals expanding opportunities: 1) Gaming: "Three Kingdoms: Strategic Supremacy" demonstrates robust longevity, with Qimai data indicating strong S8 and anniversary server performance. Gaming revenue could surge 20% YoY in 2025. 2) Advertising: Ecosystem vitality supports monetization, with 15% projected 2025 revenue growth. Long-term ad load could approach 10%, while AI optimization promises significant eCPM improvements. 3) Profit leverage: Controlled cost expansion against revenue growth may amplify operational efficiency. Gross margins might reach 37% in 2025, with 40%-45% achievable long-term.
BW2025 set attendance records as Shanghai International Anime Month's flagship event. Exhibition space expanded 30% annually with 350,000 tickets sold. The vibrant youth-centric atmosphere underscored Bilibili's successful offline extension of its digital community ethos.