The production and demand fundamentals remain stable, while employment and prices show overall stability. New growth drivers are being cultivated and strengthened. In August, the national economy sustained a stable and progressive development trend, showcasing strong resilience.
On September 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data indicating that the industrial value added above designated size in August experienced a year-on-year real growth of 5.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in August increased by 3.4% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 0.5% year-on-year, which is a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to January to July.
In terms of unemployment, the urban surveyed unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but unchanged from the same month the previous year. Regarding prices, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the nationwide Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, with the growth rate down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, reflecting an expansion of 0.1 percentage points, marking the fourth consecutive month of accelerated growth. The widening core CPI increase is primarily driven by the recovery of industrial consumer goods and service prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9% year-on-year, a narrowed decline of 0.7 percentage points compared to last month, and month-on-month, it remained stable after a 0.2% decrease last month.
The continued recovery in demand is driving the core CPI's persistent rise in response to the ongoing policy recommendations against “involution”. The PPI shows signs of stabilization, with positive price changes continuing to accumulate. Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and the chief economist, stated at a press conference, "The overall operation of the national economy in August is stable and progressing."
Production and demand fundamentals remain steady, with employment and prices stable, fostering new growth dynamics. The effects of policies are continuously evolving. Since 2025, various departments have intensified the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies to maintain continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and predictability, promoting steady and progressive economic development.
According to Fu Linghui, August's economic data reflect that various policies continue to play active roles in expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, promoting circulation, and increasing momentum: First, the effects of expanding domestic demand continue to surface. In consumption, funding for the third batch of consumer goods replacement policies has been allocated, effectively promoting consumer demand and driving a significant increase in relevant product sales. In August, retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, furniture, and cultural and office supplies in units above designated size continued to achieve double-digit growth rates, significantly outpacing the overall sales growth and robustly supporting sales growth.
As living standards improve, the demand for quality consumption constantly releases, leading to rapid sales growth of upgraded products. In August, retail sales of sports and entertainment supplies and gold and jewelry saw year-on-year growth of 16.9% and 16.8%, respectively, which also contributed to increased sales. Service consumption continues to grow rapidly, with retail sales increasing by 5.1% from January to August, surpassing the growth rate of merchandise retail. The retail sales of travel-related services also grew quickly, maintaining double-digit growth across various categories.
In terms of investment, the continuous drive from large-scale equipment modernization remains evident. From January to August, investment in purchasing equipment and tools increased by 14.4% year-on-year, contributing 2.1 percentage points to fixed asset investment growth. Manufacturing investment increased by 5.1% during the same period, significantly higher than overall investment growth, providing strong support for manufacturing upgrades.
In high-tech industries, investment in information services, aviation, aerospace manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing maintained rapid growth rates of 34.1%, 28.0%, and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively. Second, the production-driven effects continue to be released. The effectiveness of expanding domestic demand policies is being transmitted to the production side, leading to rapid growth in related industries.
Driven by equipment upgrades, industrial value added in August for boiler and prime mover manufacturing and electric motor manufacturing rose by 11.9% and 14.8% year-on-year, respectively, while growth rates for CNC machine tools and special packaging equipment surpassed 10%. Under the initiative to replace old consumer goods, production of lithium-ion battery packs for cars, charging piles, and electric bicycles also maintained double-digit growth.
Third, the promotional effects of economic circulation have begun to manifest. With expanding market demand and production growth, the circulation of production factors is improving. The logistics industry’s prosperity index remains expansive, railway freight volume growth is accelerating, and express delivery business volume is rapidly increasing. By regulating corporate competition, enhancing key industries' capacity governance, and promoting an improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain sectors, production prices are positively changing. In August, the PPI stabilized after a drop of 0.2% the previous month, with the coal mining and washing industry and black metal smelting and rolling industry experiencing month-on-month price increases of 2.8% and 1.9%, respectively.
Fourth, economic growth momentum is strengthening. Policies promoting innovation are continuously exerting their influence, fostering the development of new productive forces, and enhancing new growth dynamics. In August, value added in the integrated circuit manufacturing and electronic material production industries exceeded a growth rate of 20%. The implementation of "AI+" initiatives has gained traction, and there is increasing preference for intelligent terminal products, with positive developments in the digital economy. In August, production of new products such as industrial robots, robotic reducers, and consumer drones maintained rapid growth.
Additionally, under the effects of stabilizing and invigorating capital market-related policies, stock trading on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges was active in August, benefiting market expectations and fostering development vitality.
Preliminary effects of anti-involution policies are evident as the economy maintains overall stability. Positive price changes symbolize a recovery in demand, influenced partly by the previous economic rebound and the preliminary effects of the recent anti-involution policies promoting reasonable price recovery. The year-on-year CPI turned from flat to negative in August, primarily due to the high comparison base from the previous year. In August 2024, extreme summer heat and localized heavy rainfall led to a noticeable increase in food prices, further influencing CPI's year-on-year decrease in 2025. In August, food prices dropped by 4.3% year-on-year, expanding the decline by 2.7 percentage points compared to last month, affecting the CPI's year-on-year decline by an additional 0.51 percentage points. Prices for pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs also fell over 10% year-on-year. However, the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point expansion, illustrating ongoing cumulative positive price changes that more accurately reflect the real supply-demand situation in the economy. Notably, the PPI has shown signs of bottoming out and stabilizing, with a 2.9% year-on-year drop that narrowed by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month and month-on-month stability following last month's decline.
Fu Linghui stated, "Relevant departments are actively promoting industry self-discipline and addressing capacity governance issues in key sectors, with effects gradually becoming evident. In August, the price declines in the coal, steel, new energy vehicle, and photovoltaic industries narrowed year-on-year, contributing to a diminishing impact on the PPI."
CITIC Securities believes that in the industries benefiting from the anti-involution policy, prices in August for coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling, coal mining and washing, photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, and the overall manufacturing of new energy vehicles have significantly narrowed year-on-year declines, reducing their impact on the August year-on-year PPI drop by about 0.50 percentage points. A turning point in the PPI has emerged, and it is expected that PPI year-on-year growth will rise to around -2% in the fourth quarter.