Huaxin Securities released a research report stating that energy storage battery cells have led price increases, potentially marking the end of domestic price competition, with system integration expected to follow suit. Looking ahead, from a medium-term perspective, tight supply-demand balance will persist through this year and next, while long-term global energy storage prosperity continues upward, with leading battery manufacturers and integrators poised to benefit from both volume and price increases. Current sector valuations remain at historical lows with significant recovery potential. Recent intensive robotics catalysts include Tesla's (TSLA.US) fourth-generation "Master Plan" emphasizing Optimus development value, Unitree Robotics announcing IPO preparation progress, and UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880) securing the largest publicly disclosed single contract in the humanoid robotics industry, accelerating domestic robotics industrialization.
**Energy Storage: Battery Cell Shortages Drive Prices Up, Strong Global Demand**
Energy storage battery cell prices rising, supply tightening. On pricing, recent energy storage battery cell quotations have generally increased, with mainstream manufacturers' pricing centers rising 0.003-0.01 yuan/Wh compared to previous period. Current lithium iron phosphate energy storage battery cell prices: 100Ah range 0.340-0.400 yuan/Wh, average 0.370 yuan/Wh; 280Ah range 0.260-0.335 yuan/Wh, average 0.298 yuan/Wh; 314Ah range 0.255-0.340 yuan/Wh, average 0.298 yuan/Wh. On production scheduling, September global battery capacity utilization approaches 80%, with energy storage battery cell order production schedules extending.
The firm believes this round of price increases and shortages stems from three core factors: 1) Upstream price increases: lithium carbonate prices rebounding periodically, providing support for battery cell price increases; 2) Insufficient capacity: some production lines stopped due to switching to large-capacity battery cells, temporarily contracting effective capacity; 3) Strong demand: synchronized high prosperity in domestic and international energy storage markets, with orders exceeding expectations.
**Domestic Market:** Policy optimization improves profit models, demand shifts to economics-driven. While markets previously worried about second-half stagnation following first-half "rush installation," bidding data has continued growing since June, with August energy storage system/EPC procurement reaching 69.4GWh, setting a new monthly record and confirming demand resilience and high growth. Better-than-expected energy storage procurement performance mainly benefits from supporting policies rolled out by provinces following Document 136, providing support in spot trading and capacity pricing, gradually improving large-scale storage profit models, shifting demand drivers from mandatory policy allocation to economics-driven, enhancing owner installation enthusiasm.
**International Market:** Global multi-regional resonance, accelerating order fulfillment. 1) United States: On profitability, current Chinese energy storage battery import tariffs to US approximately 40.9%, but against backdrop of high internal project returns, leading manufacturers can fully pass through tariff costs, with profitability exceeding expectations; on demand, to avoid higher 2026 battery tariffs and sensitive entity supply ratio restrictions under domestic large-scale legislation, domestic companies show strong rush-shipping intentions this year. Looking ahead, US energy storage ITC subsidy phase-out postponed, project filing numbers continue growing, sufficient potential orders, optimistic about both volume and price for 2026 US storage market. 2) Europe: For utility-scale storage, rising renewable energy ratios trigger grid absorption and stability concerns, catalyzed by Spain's major blackout, creating urgent utility-scale storage demand; for residential storage, Q4 2024 destocking basically completed, exports recovering from March 2025, Germany/UK/Austria VAT reductions continuing, combined with significant system cost declines, residential storage maintains economic viability even with falling residential electricity prices, driving demand growth. 3) Emerging markets: Australia, Middle East, Latin America and other overseas markets similarly show positive energy storage demand.
Overall, energy storage battery cells leading price increases potentially signals domestic price competition nearing end, with system integration expected to follow pricing. Looking ahead, medium-term supply-demand tight balance will persist through this year and next, while long-term global energy storage prosperity continues upward, with leading battery manufacturers and integrators poised to benefit from volume and price increases. Current sector valuations remain at historical lows with significant recovery potential.
**Robotics: Tesla Catalysts Intensify, Domestic Industrialization Accelerates**
Recent intensive Tesla (TSLA.US) catalysts. September 2, Tesla released fourth-generation "Master Plan," with Musk emphasizing approximately 80% of company's future value coming from Optimus; September 5, Tesla's board submitted a specially customized performance incentive plan for Musk, with incentive amount reaching 424 million shares (12% of total share capital), including delivery of 1 million humanoid robots as one exercise condition; September 7, Tesla opened Tesla AI Weibo account, showcasing new version Optimus V2.5, while Salesforce CEO previously posted social media video showing interaction dialogue with this Optimus model.
Domestic robotics industrialization accelerating. September 2, Unitree Robotics officially announced actively advancing IPO preparation work, expecting to submit application documents October-December; September 3, UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880) announced securing 250 million yuan embodied intelligence humanoid robot procurement contract, primarily featuring humanoid robot Walker S2, with delivery starting this year, representing the largest publicly disclosed single contract in humanoid robotics industry to date.
**Investment Recommendations**
For energy storage sector, recommend focusing on quality energy storage integration targets: Sungrow Power, Hyperstrong, SUNGROW Power Supply, Kehua Data, etc.
For humanoid robotics sector, recommend focusing on core targets with high supply chain certainty and high value in industrial chain segments: Topmost Group, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Zhaowei Electromechanical, etc.
Maintain "Recommended" rating for power equipment sector.
**Risk Warnings**
Energy storage demand below expectations, subsequent policy strength below expectations, humanoid robotics industrialization progress below expectations, excessive competition, raw material price volatility, international trade friction, systematic market risks, recommended company performance below expectations, etc.