JPMorgan strategists suggest robust retail inflows may continue supporting US equities until year-end. The team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou based this outlook on seasonal patterns in equity fund flows over the past decade. Their analysis shows that in non-US election years, average inflows typically strengthen in December and the subsequent first quarter.

The S&P 500 recently notched a six-month winning streak—its longest since August 2021—gaining nearly 6% combined in September and October. Fueled by the AI boom lifting tech giants, the benchmark has hit 36 record highs this year.

"Seasonally, the strong retail momentum seen over the past two months could persist into early 2026," noted Panigirtzoglou’s team.

Retail investors’ robust equity demand in September and October was evident in instruments like ETFs, which saw $160 billion inflows each month—the most active buying period since the post-election months of November/December 2024.

Richard Privorotsky, a Goldman Sachs partner, observed: "Retail investors are facing their first real test in a while." He explained that crypto declines and pressure on unprofitable tech stocks reflect natural capital rotation within markets.

However, he expects any market pullback to be short-lived. "Ultimately, dip-buying will emerge," Privorotsky said, citing fiscal expansion, corporate earnings, and money supply dynamics that make real assets the primary wealth-preservation option.