JPMorgan Chase strategists anticipate robust inflows from retail investors will continue to bolster US stocks, with this momentum likely persisting until the end of the year.

A team of strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted in a recent report that, based on seasonal patterns observed in stock fund flows over the past decade, average inflows tend to strengthen in December and the first quarter of the following year—except during US election years. Strong retail demand for equities in September and October has already been reflected in ETF flow data.

Panigirtzoglou and colleagues wrote:

"From a seasonal perspective, the strong retail investor momentum seen over the past two months is likely to extend into early 2026."

**ETF Inflows Hit Post-Election High as S&P 500 Extends Six-Month Rally** The team highlighted that equity ETFs recorded inflows of approximately $160 billion in both September and October, marking the strongest buying pace since the November-December 2024 post-election period. This surge reflects sustained retail confidence in the market.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has just notched its sixth consecutive monthly gain—the longest streak since August 2021—rising nearly 6% over September and October. Year-to-date, the index has set 36 closing highs, driven largely by tech giants benefiting from the AI boom.

**Short-Term Pullback Unlikely to Derail Long-Term Trend** Although the global equity rally has slowed recently—partly due to profit-taking in overvalued tech stocks and corrections in retail-favored AI plays and cryptocurrencies—Wall Street analysts widely view this as a temporary setback.

Richard Privorotsky, a partner at Goldman Sachs, noted that declines in crypto assets and pressure on unprofitable tech stocks represent a rational rotation within the market. He stated:

"Retail investors are facing their first real test in a while."

Privorotsky emphasized that, against a backdrop of fiscal expansion, solid corporate earnings, and ample liquidity, physical assets remain a key wealth-preservation choice. Additionally, conflicting signals from Fed officials on rate-cut timing and US government shutdown risks have weighed on sentiment.