JP Morgan recently issued a research report focusing on ASML Holding NV's (ASML.US) upcoming third quarter 2025 (3Q25) earnings announcement scheduled for next week. The investment bank believes opportunities outweigh risks following the earnings release, with market attention likely shifting to fiscal year 2027 (FY27) post-announcement. JP Morgan reaffirms its "Overweight" rating and "Top Pick" status for ASML Holding NV.

**Core Investment Thesis and Earnings Risk Assessment**

The firm notes that ASML Holding NV's stock has declined 43% since the company stated during its last earnings call that "we are still preparing for 2026 growth, but currently cannot confirm the growth situation." Consequently, this earnings report faces two primary risks: third quarter 2025 orders falling short of expectations, or fiscal year 2026 (FY26) guidance coming in below market consensus.

Given ASML Holding NV's cautious stance early in the quarter, JP Morgan's Q3 2025 order expectations are below market consensus. However, with tariff pressures easing, the firm believes Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's orders may strengthen in the latter half of the quarter, suggesting ASML Holding NV's actual order performance could exceed the bank's expectations. Whether it meets market consensus on order volume depends on Samsung's actions.

Samsung has been delaying equipment procurement orders for its Pyeongtaek P4 fab. The company still holds previously deferred backlog orders, eliminating the need for new orders and simply requiring activation of existing backlog to meet 2026 delivery requirements (though new orders will eventually be necessary). This uncertainty around Samsung's order timing has led the firm to reduce its order expectations.

Meanwhile, benefiting from strong memory market performance, the bank remains optimistic about ASML Holding NV shares. Should ASML Holding NV provide FY2026 guidance below current market consensus, the firm views this as the final negative development—with market focus shifting to FY2027 expectations after the October 15 earnings guidance release. Therefore, if the earnings report shows weak FY2026 order/sales guidance, the bank recommends buying on pullbacks. Conversely, strong order volumes and FY2026 guidance would benefit the stock price.

Despite potential short-term pullback risks before earnings release, given that both potential outcomes (strong or weak guidance) have positive medium to long-term implications for the stock, the firm sees no reason for investors to take profits before the earnings announcement. JP Morgan reiterates its "Overweight" rating and "Top Pick" designation for ASML Holding NV.

**Third Quarter 2025 (3Q25) Earnings Expectations Details**

ASML Holding NV will release third quarter results on October 15. The firm's expectations for key financial metrics are as follows:

**Revenue:** Expected to reach €7.568 billion, representing a 1.6% quarter-over-quarter decline and 1.3% year-over-year growth. This figure is 1.5% below market consensus but falls within ASML Holding NV's guidance range of €7.4-7.9 billion (midpoint €7.65 billion).

**Orders:** Expected at €3.92 billion, 21.1% below Bloomberg consensus expectations—reflecting the firm's conservative view given the low predictability of quarterly orders. This also represents 22.4% below the €5.05 billion buy-side consensus the firm has collected.

**Profitability:** Gross margin expected at 51.1% (within ASML Holding NV's 50%-52% guidance range), consistent with market consensus. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) expected at €2.331 billion (30.8% margin), 3.4% below market consensus (60 basis points lower). Earnings per share (EPS) expected at €5.17 per share, 3.0% below market consensus.

The firm expects ASML Holding NV to provide FY2026 guidance ranges in its third quarter earnings report. Given memory market improvements since the last earnings release and concurrent positive developments in the logic semiconductor market, FY2026 guidance should be more positive than the company's previous commentary on 2026 during last quarter's results.