Macquarie issued a research report stating that it expects POP MART (09992) to achieve revenue of approximately 33 billion RMB in fiscal year 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 35%. The firm maintains an "Outperform" rating. As the company's growth is expected to slow starting in 2026, the target P/E ratio was reduced from 34.5x to 33x, while the target price was raised 11% to HK$400.
Macquarie stated that given the company's 1,142% year-on-year revenue growth in the Americas market, it believes POP MART still has considerable upside potential. The current 59% online sales contribution indicates the company has more room to open physical stores. Nevertheless, as the company focuses on store quality and productivity, the firm believes POP MART maintains discipline. It also considers that opening stores in prime locations will further enhance brand awareness among celebrities and opinion leaders by expanding the potential customer base.
Additionally, Macquarie believes the expansion in Europe and other regions is just beginning, while there is also potential for driving localization in the long term. Macquarie also noted that POP MART has been investing in IP beyond The Monsters and will eventually achieve a more balanced IP portfolio. On another note, the upcoming mini Labubu series also demonstrates the company's ability to monetize through new scenarios (different sizes corresponding to different uses) and category expansion.
The firm raised POP MART's net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 by 17% and 16% respectively, reflecting higher expectations for revenue and profit margins. Revenue forecasts were raised by 7% and 8% respectively to reflect better prospects for the second half of 2025 through product launches and continued overseas store expansion. Gross profit margin forecasts were raised by 0.6 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points respectively.