According to a research report released by CICC, polysilicon transaction prices ranged between 46,000-51,000 yuan per ton last week, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan per ton, though order volumes declined sequentially, based on data from the China Silicon Industry Association. According to SMM, silicon wafer companies continue to accumulate silicon material inventory, with polysilicon inventory at wafer companies reaching approximately 208,000 tons as of August 31. Combined with 270,000 tons of inventory at silicon material companies, total industry inventory stands at about 500,000 tons, sufficient to meet approximately 5 months of demand. According to JYD Commodity, glass inventory days decreased 17.99% week-over-week to 19.69 days this week, with 2.0mm glass prices at 11 yuan per square meter. As glass supply-side anti-involution measures continue, prices are expected to gradually recover above cost levels, with some second-tier and lower companies potentially suspending cold repairs in the short term, extending the capacity clearing cycle.

CICC's main viewpoints are as follows:

Silicon Material Segment Continues Inventory Accumulation, Expectations Support Price Increases According to the China Silicon Industry Association, polysilicon transaction prices ranged between 46,000-51,000 yuan per ton last week, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan per ton, though order volumes declined sequentially. Due to optimistic expectations for future silicon material prices, according to SMM, silicon wafer companies continue to accumulate silicon material inventory, with polysilicon inventory at wafer companies reaching approximately 208,000 tons as of August 31. Combined with 270,000 tons of inventory at silicon material companies, total industry inventory stands at about 500,000 tons, sufficient to meet approximately 5 months of demand. According to industry estimates, September industry sales restrictions amount to approximately 97,000 tons, while industry feedback suggests polysilicon production is still expected to reach 120,000-130,000 tons. Silicon material companies are accumulating inventory, while wafer companies, due to higher production schedules (approximately 57GW), will reduce polysilicon inventory to some extent. Sales restrictions have some effect on stabilizing prices, but there remains some disconnect between prices and actual supply-demand dynamics and inventory levels.

"Anti-Involution" Expectations Not Fully Reflected, Optimistic About Subsequent Sector Potential The market generally expects September to be an important milestone for implementing solar anti-involution measures. Observing overall solar sector performance, since the heated discussions about "anti-involution" in July, the solar index has not shown significant outperformance compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets. Therefore, if subsequent policies are implemented, sector stocks still have considerable room for growth. 1) Anti-involution pioneer silicon material segment, where leading silicon material companies have greater elasticity, with key focus on low-valuation leader Tongwei Co.,Ltd. (600438.SH), granular silicon technology, etc.; 2) High-efficiency module leaders, Jinko Solar Co.,Ltd. (688223.SH) (with relatively low implied valuation and stronger financial and technical capabilities for TOPCon conversion efficiency improvements compared to other leaders), etc.; 3) New technology advancement such as Wuxi Dk Electronic Materials Co.,Ltd. (300842.SZ) (strong certainty in high-copper paste advancement), etc.

Solar Auxiliary Material Supply Chain: Glass Inventory Days Continue Declining, Prices Expected to Rise According to JYD Commodity, glass inventory days decreased 17.99% week-over-week to 19.69 days this week, with 2.0mm glass prices at 11 yuan per square meter. As glass supply-side anti-involution measures continue, prices are expected to gradually recover above cost levels, with some second-tier and lower companies potentially suspending cold repairs in the short term, extending the capacity clearing cycle. Regarding film materials, attention should be paid to film companies' second growth curves, such as Hiuv New Materials' automotive dimming film business, expected to ramp up in 2025. For the inverter sector, Q3 shipments are expected to grow sequentially, with some manufacturers deploying AIDC solid-state transformers, potentially becoming new growth points for performance.

We are optimistic about investment opportunities in the glass industry's supply-side clearing and inverter sector's stable profitability. Recommendations include: 1) Glass leaders XINYI SOLAR (00968), Flat Glass Group Co.,Ltd. (601865.SH); 2) Inverter companies Ginlong Technologies Co.,Ltd. (300763.SZ), Ningbo Deye Technology Co.,Ltd. (605117.SH), Yuneng Technology Co.,Ltd. (688348.SH).

Risk Factors: Solar demand falling short of expectations, supply-side reform falling short of expectations, trade policy risks.