Last week, A-shares experienced high-level volatility and consolidation, with the ChiNext index rebounding against the trend while the main board saw significant pullbacks due to selling pressure. Market hotspots rotated rapidly between technology, commodities, and defensive sectors. On the economic data front, August PMI figures showed across-the-board improvements, with manufacturing rising slightly month-over-month but remaining in contraction territory, indicating that the foundation for economic recovery still needs consolidation. Weekly A-share trading volume declined, with average daily turnover dropping to 2.60 trillion yuan. Most sectors declined with few gainers, and overall market style performance showed: consumer > cyclical > financial > growth.

Golden Eagle Fund stated that last week's market volatility and pullback digested profit-taking pressure, and the market can still maintain steady progress going forward. Domestically, while A-share markets experienced high-level volatility and pullbacks, margin trading balances reached new historical highs during the week, with leveraged capital sentiment reflecting that market risk appetite remains structurally elevated. From an industry rotation perspective, previously strong AI chains, rare earths, and non-banking sectors saw significant corrections, while power equipment and precious metals sectors heated up notably, confirming that while the market digests structural high-level divergence, capital tends toward rotational allocation rather than profit-taking. From a medium-term perspective, in an environment where domestic low interest rates and US rate cut expectations are relatively certain, combined with the rebalancing process between equity and bond market valuations, incremental capital in equity markets maintains positive expectations against the backdrop of stable domestic fundamentals. Internationally, last week's US August non-farm payroll data confirmed labor market weakness, further consolidating September rate cut expectations. Looking ahead, September capital market core macro variables may come more from liquidity, with the baseline scenario being a 25bp rate cut, while the possibility of a 50bp cut is rising. Additionally, Trump's political interference has increased marginal pressure on the Federal Reserve, with Governor Cook facing significant likelihood of removal, and changes in Fed member positions will benefit Trump's intervention in Fed rate-cutting pace. This brings significant impacts: on one hand, Fed independence faces challenges, and on the other hand, markets may trade the sustainability of Fed rate cuts with further expanded space in the future.

Regarding sector focus, Golden Eagle Fund suggests that under the high-low rotation backdrop, investors should still firmly grasp the long-term earnings improvement theme, and after certain market pullbacks, attention can be paid to technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and non-banking sectors. Specifically, in technology directions, AI chains are currently at emotional trading highs. In an incremental market environment, dual development of overseas and domestic AI chains is not contradictory. It's recommended to focus on AI applications and domestic semiconductor advanced processes with relatively appropriate stock price odds ratios. As corporate profit models gradually mature, earnings realization may accelerate. In value directions, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes, non-banking sectors such as securities, insurance, and financial IT are still expected to see dual improvements in valuations and performance. Meanwhile, with Fed rate cut expectations opening up and the establishment of dual monetary and fiscal easing overseas by 2026, export chain varieties benefiting from external demand such as innovative pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals may welcome new allocation opportunities. It should be noted that current A-share markets have become relatively desensitized to potentially negative fundamental impacts, while future possible improvements are more important for market pricing. If continued weak reality in the short term triggers pullback volatility, it would instead present re-allocation opportunities. Furthermore, progress and sustainability of anti-involution measures are expected to strengthen in the future, suggesting attention to industries like solar and aquaculture that may receive key policy focus and positive impacts.

Risk Warning: The views, analyses, and forecasts referenced in this material are personal opinions based on current specific market conditions and certain assumptions. They do not necessarily apply to all future market conditions. Past performance of relevant indices and industries does not represent future performance, nor does it represent the performance of funds under our company, and does not constitute investment advice to readers. Past fund performance does not represent future performance, and past investment performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not predict future fund performance. Past holdings do not represent current holdings or future holding predictions and should not be used as investment advice. Investment involves risks, and investors should be cautious. Before making investment decisions, please carefully read legal documents such as fund contracts, fund prospectuses, and fund product summaries, as well as this risk disclosure, fully understand the fund's risk-return characteristics and product features, seriously consider various risk factors of the fund, and fully consider your own risk tolerance based on your investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status, and other factors. Based on understanding product conditions and sales suitability opinions, make rational judgments and cautious investment decisions. This material does not constitute investment advice or guarantees for any business of our company and should not be treated as any legal document. Our company or related institutions, employees, or agents do not assume any responsibility for any person's use of all or part of this content or any losses arising therefrom.

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