This article discusses the AI industry benchmark product ChatGPT facing a critical challenge, as the growth of paid users in Europe may have come to a halt, signaling a significant concern: the monetization capability of AI is under scrutiny.
On October 17, it was reported that Deutsche Bank, in its latest research note, stated that consumer spending on ChatGPT in the European market has nearly stagnated since May, suggesting that this “flagship product” of the AI wave may have reached its peak in attracting new paying users.
Despite OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announcing last week that ChatGPT has surpassed 800 million weekly active users, Deutsche Bank noted that its growth in paid users has slowed considerably, with revenue still lagging far behind streaming platforms such as Spotify and Netflix.
The research report highlighted that, despite OpenAI's valuation soaring to $500 billion—almost equivalent to Netflix's market cap—their revenue scale and number of paid subscribers are much lower. This reveals a core contradiction faced by the AI industry today—the significant gap between technological influence and commercial profitability.
Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid stated, “AI will undoubtedly change the world and enhance productivity, but the path to profitability remains unclear. The real challenge lies not in algorithms, but in business models.”
Weak Growth Signals in Europe According to the dbDataInsights team at Deutsche Bank, tracking data from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK indicates that the monthly growth rate of consumer spending on ChatGPT has significantly slowed since May 2025.
It is noteworthy that, although there were similar seasonal slowdowns in July and August 2024 (attributed to fewer student users during the summer), the strong growth in June and a significant rebound in September were not repeated in 2025.
In contrast, the performance in these two months of 2025 has been lackluster, failing to replicate last year's growth momentum.
Analysis suggests that this difference indicates that the current stagnation in growth might not simply be attributed to seasonal fluctuations. Although the data only covers parts of the European market rather than globally, and there may still be data variability, this trend undoubtedly deserves close attention.
Significant Gap Between Valuation and Revenue Deutsche Bank's comparative analysis reveals a noticeable disparity between OpenAI’s valuation and its actual business scale. The report states that while Netflix’s market value is comparable to OpenAI’s expected valuation of $500 billion, it boasts over 300 million global subscribers and is projected to generate $45 billion in annual revenue for 2025, with a price-to-sales ratio of 12.5 times.
In comparison, the music streaming platform Spotify, valued at $144 billion, has 276 million subscribers and is expected to exceed $17 billion in annual revenue, with a price-to-sales ratio of 7.3 times.
In contrast, according to data released by OpenAI in April this year, its global paid subscriber count stands at only about 20 million—a substantial gap relative to its valuation.
Deutsche Bank emphasizes that while OpenAI’s user growth has been remarkable (with weekly active users rising from 500 million at the end of March to 800 million), the biggest challenge in commercialization is “how to convert this massive traffic into ongoing paying subscribers."
The report notes that the initial growth of AI tools is often driven by curiosity and the viral effect of free users, but once entering the paid phase, retention rates and ongoing value will determine the platform's commercial ceiling.
Investors are closely monitoring OpenAI's upcoming revenue disclosure period. Deutsche Bank believes that if the growth in paid users continues to stagnate, the valuation framework of the AI industry may face correction pressure.