On October 16, the Sichuan Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics released data indicating that in September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for residents in Sichuan experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.9%, consistent with the previous month's rate; on a month-on-month basis, it stabilized after a decline last month. The average CPI for January to September was down 0.4% compared to last year.
Seasonal price increases for fresh vegetables and fruits, while pork prices continued to fall. In particular, September saw seasonal price increases for fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, and eggs, rising by 7.4%, 1.2%, and 3.5% month-on-month, respectively. "The increase in prices for fresh vegetables and fruits is mainly due to the gradual exit of summer produce from the market, making way for the 'autumn slump'. Egg prices have risen mainly because of pre-Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling by food manufacturers," according to a relevant official from the Consumer Price Survey Department of the Sichuan Survey Office.
Pork prices continued their downward trend. In September, pork prices fell slightly by 0.3% month-on-month and dropped 20.6% year-on-year. "This is mainly because destocking in the hog sector is slow, while consumption has not yet entered the peak season," the official explained. Currently, the number of breeding sows is at a high level, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicating that as of the end of August 2025, there were 40.38 million breeding sows, which is 103.5% of the normal holding amount. Li Xiaoyong, president of the Pig Industry Branch of the Sichuan Animal Husbandry Association, stated that despite "anti-involution" signals released by regulatory authorities since July, the destocking process has at least a ten-month transmission cycle, combined with a relatively calm pork consumption after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, indicating that the industry will continue to be in a "bottoming phase" until the peak seasonal consumption at year-end arrives.
Turning to service prices, September saw tourism-related service prices hitting a low point pre-National Day following the summer, with prices for plane tickets, hotel accommodations, and travel agency services falling by 15.8%, 5.5%, and 9.1% month-on-month, respectively. However, despite the year-on-year decline in Sichuan's CPI in September, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, reaching a high point since February this year. "This indicates a gradual accumulation of domestic demand recovery momentum, but the current rise in core CPI relies more on policy effects, and further enhancement of market-driven demand is still needed," the official noted.
Effects of "Anti-Involution" Policies Visible, Prices in Some Industries Warm Up. Regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI), in September, the year-on-year decline of the Sichuan PPI significantly narrowed, with a decrease of 2.0%, an improvement of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month; month-on-month, it rebounded to an increase of 0.4%, up by 0.5 percentage points compared to last month. "With the implementation of a series of policies, prices in some industries are stabilizing and improving," analyzed a relevant official from the Production Price Survey Department of the Sichuan Survey Office. Specifically, the PPI in Sichuan showed the following trends in September: - The price of coal processing increased by 4.0% month-on-month, - The price of coal mining and washing rose by 0.6%, - Prices in the black metal smelting and rolling industry grew by 0.8%, - Prices in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector increased by 0.5%, - The chemical fiber manufacturing prices rose by 0.6%, - The price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries increased by 3.7%.
Policies encouraging automobile consumption had a clear effect, leading to a rebound in car prices. The price of automobile manufacturing increased by 0.4% month-on-month, contributing to a 0.03 percentage point increase in the overall PPI month-on-month, although it remains down 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline of 0.9 percentage points less severe than last month. Particularly under the "anti-involution" policy, the effects of capacity management are evident, with year-on-year price declines in certain industries like steel and photovoltaic components narrowing. Data shows that the year-on-year price decline for coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling, coal mining and washing, photovoltaic manufacturing and components, battery manufacturing, as well as chemical raw materials and products manufacturing, have narrowed by 5.4, 4.4, 3.8, 3.5, 0.4, and 1.4 percentage points respectively compared to last month.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, what trend may the PPI take? "For the fourth quarter of 2025, the tailing effect is expected to contribute 0.3 percentage points," noted an official from the Production Price Survey Department of the Sichuan Survey Office, predicting that the PPI in Sichuan will maintain a low operating trend in the fourth quarter with the decline likely to narrow further, requiring keen attention on the effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies and fluctuations in global commodity prices.