According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guolian Minsheng Securities issued a research report stating that based on Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data, the absolute value of breeding sow inventory continued to increase from May to November 2024 according to National Bureau of Statistics figures. Combined with gradually improving industry production efficiency, the firm expects pig slaughter volumes to maintain growth at least until September 2025. Pig prices in 2025 are expected to operate weakly overall, with industry profitability levels likely to decline, and future capacity reduction trends are expected to strengthen. The firm particularly recommends excellent breeding enterprises with obvious cost advantages and high slaughter delivery rates. It recommends Muyuan Co., Ltd. (002714.SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. (300498.SZ), and others; it also recommends post-cycle animal health and feed sectors, such as Haida Group Co., Ltd. (002311.SZ).
The main viewpoints of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows:
**Ministry of Agriculture July Breeding Sow Inventory Declined Month-on-Month** According to Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data, the number of sow culling at large-scale pig farms nationwide increased by 2.1% month-on-month in July, with national breeding sow inventory at 40.42 million heads at the end of July, down 10,000 heads month-on-month. From May 2024 to July 2025, national pig farming has maintained profitability for 15 consecutive months, with an average profit of 108 yuan per slaughtered pig nationwide this year. On July 23, 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting high-quality development of the pig industry: strictly implement capacity regulation measures, reasonably cull breeding sows, appropriately reduce breeding sow inventory, reduce secondary fattening, control fat pig slaughter weight, and strictly control new capacity additions.
**Yongyii Sample July Breeding Sow Inventory Data Increased Month-on-Month** According to Yongyii Consulting data, July Sample 1 breeding sow inventory was 9.889 million heads, up 0.14% month-on-month from the previous month (previous value 0.22%), with growth narrowing; July Sample 2 breeding sow inventory was 1.15 million heads, up 0.52% month-on-month from the previous month (previous value 0.12%). July pig feed sales increased 4.9% month-on-month, with replacement sow feed up 0.85% month-on-month, other sow feed up 1.2% month-on-month, nursery feed up 2.5% month-on-month, piglet feed up 2.3% month-on-month, and fattening feed up 6.6% month-on-month. In early July, enthusiasm for secondary breeding restocking increased periodically, but as pig prices continued to fall in the middle and late periods, retail farmers' reluctance to sell intensified, supporting the month-on-month increase in external fattening feed sales.
**Mysteel Data Shows Small Changes in July Breeding Sow Inventory** According to Mysteel agricultural product data, the comprehensive sample's July breeding sow inventory remained flat compared to the previous month; large-scale breeding farm samples showed July breeding sow inventory of 5.0986 million heads, up 0.01% month-on-month (previous value +0.29%); retail farmer sample farms showed July breeding sow inventory of 174,000 heads, down 0.17% month-on-month (previous value +0.17%). The domestic pig market fell from high levels in July, but breeding-end live pig slaughter profits still exist, and enterprises' overall willingness to actively reduce capacity is relatively limited, with upstream capacity mostly undergoing optimization and replacement. Overall, large-scale farms were affected by policy adjustments and localized African swine fever outbreaks, with pig enterprises in Northeast, North China, and Southwest regions experiencing slight declines in sow capacity; small and medium-scale retail inventory showed slight declines due to sporadic pig diseases and low piglet price sentiment.
**Risk Warning:** Disease risks, long-term low livestock price risks, raw material price fluctuation risks