DeepSeek 給出了對寒武紀、摩爾線程、沐曦的投資建議

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文 | 最話FunTalk，作者 | 何伊然，編輯 | 劉宇翔一個有趣的問題是：如果AI 有泡沫，為什麼不賣出288倍PE的寒武紀，賣出虧損的摩爾線程、沐曦，買入44 倍PE 的英偉達？如果AI 沒有泡沫，為什麼放着44倍PE的英偉達不買，而去追高288倍PE的寒武紀、虧損的摩爾線程和沐曦？當我把問題拋給DeepSeek，善於拍馬屁的它直呼，這確實是一個「靈魂拷問」，並給出了它的看法：答案並非簡單...

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認為如果你相信「國運」，能承受高風險但也追求高收益，就押注國產頭部芯片公司，但需要極大的耐心和信念，以及設好止損線。它對AI產業格局的終極判斷是：全球市場最終會由英偉達、AMD等少數幾家巨頭主導；世界將形成中美兩套獨立的科技體系，中國市場上會誕生自己的「英偉達」。因此它給出了一個可能的平衡策略，將投資AI的資金分為兩部分：大部分（如70%）配置於像英偉達這樣的全球龍頭，作為核心持倉，分享行業發展的確定性紅利；小部分（如30%）作為一種「風險投資」，配置於有潛力的國產AI芯片公司，博取更高的回報。這樣既不錯過國產替代的歷史性機遇，又控制了整體風險。坦率説，當DeepSeek 給出這些分析以及建議時，我覺得AI 並沒有泡沫或者説AI的進化值得期待，在AI 領域投再多的投入都值得。這是場看不見硝煙的軍備競賽，贏家通吃，輸家則徹底出局。這也是「膽小鬼的遊戲」，誰也不敢先認輸，起碼英偉達的黃仁勳沒有。他在近期一次內部交流會上預測：到2027 年，僅英偉達自己供應的GPU 集羣將消耗全球150-200GW 電力，相當於1.5-2個法國全國用電量——這還只是算力需求的冰山一角，電力缺口已成為AI 發展的終極瓶頸。他表示，如果電力問題無法解決，所有先進的芯片、強大的模型都只是「無法啓動的空殼」，AI革命會直接卡在能源這一層。為此，英偉達將以「800V 架構為核心、多能源協同為支撐、生態投資為紐帶」，構建「算力-能源」閉環。面對英偉達的宏大布局，國產GPU 產業鏈顯然也不會坐以待斃。0112月，美國《時代》雜誌宣佈「人工智能的建造者」當選2025年度人物。或許是為了扣合「建造者」表述，雜誌封面特意模仿1932年美國大興土木建設時期的工人經典照片，讓包括黃仁勳、山姆·奧爾特曼、埃隆·馬斯克在內的科技公司掌舵人在紐約上空高高懸掛的鋼樑上並排而坐。某種程度上，這樣的構圖也在迎合市場的焦慮——AI是新時代的基建，但處在充滿不確定性的波動期。自ChatGPT橫空出世以來，各行各業都因人工智能的融入迎來了翻天覆地的變化，所有人都清楚一個充滿機遇的AI時代正在降臨。2025年,由OpenAI主導的5000億美元「星際之門」計劃打頭陣，全球科技巨頭在AI基礎設施領域的競賽進入白熱化階段。摩根士丹利表示，美股「七巨頭」在今年的資本支出已達到4000億美元，遠超原計劃的2500億美元。狂飆的資本支出讓手握充足現金流的巨頭們也撐不住了，紛紛向外部尋求資金支援。根據美國銀行報告，谷歌、Meta、亞馬遜、微軟和甲骨文今年累計發行約1210億美元債券用於AI數據中心建設。在一個蓬勃發展的行業，市場樂於見到處在行業浪潮頂峯的人保持積極進取的衝勁。不過，凡事也都講究過猶不及，從業者的衝勁超過了大眾認知，外界更會擔心其中的「陷阱」——硅谷巨頭近年來用盈利支撐增長的模式會被AI打破。相比前兩年生怕錯過機會的「一擁而上」，資本在多次教訓中變得更加謹慎了。第三方統計顯示，2025年全球AI初創企業孖展額同比下降32%，9月，OpenAI與英偉達、甲骨文、軟銀等合作者通過複雜的孖展結構用「循環收入」的辦法讓甲骨文拿出了一份非常漂亮的財報，帶動公司股價以創紀錄的漲幅刷新歷史新高。此後，甲骨文股價便因交易細節被曝光而一路走低。甲骨文重要合作者Blue Owl Capital已經退出了位於密歇根州的數據中心項目，撤資總額約為100億美元。此外，由於勞動力和材料短缺,甲骨文與OpenAI合作的數據中心建設也從2027年推遲到了2028年。甲骨文對此斷然否認，宣稱「所有里程碑仍按計劃推進」。然而美國證券交易委員會文件顯示，截至11月，甲骨文總負債額超過1240億美元。以沽空安然聞名的大空頭吉姆·查諾斯在12月直接嘲諷甲骨文正逼近財務承壓區間，「如果用新增營業利潤除以新增投入資本來計算，甲骨文的回報率只有8.5%，微軟接近40%。」伴隨「AI泡沫論」愈演愈烈的焦慮，甲骨文市值在短短三個月時間近乎腰斬，堪稱是AI行業此輪波動的最大輸家。近期，OpenAI尋求新一輪1000億美元孖展的消息在甚囂塵上，幾乎坐實了現有「循環交易」的資金存在問題。OpenAI要是無法付款，甲骨文數據中心形成不了正向收益，即便建成也只能算沉重無比的負資產。千億美元到位了，相關方才能遞延收益。只不過，這筆資金又會是誰出呢？02但從AI熱潮中獲得了最大好處的黃仁勳，並不在意近期市場潑出的「冷水」。他在採訪中表示：「有人認為，全球GDP被某種力量限制在100萬億美元。人工智能將推動這個數字從100萬億增長到500萬億。」黃仁勳的底氣來自於英偉達的財報遠比甲骨文的「空頭支票」紮實。2025年第三季度，英偉達AI芯片業務憑藉技術壁壘將毛利率保持在78%的高位，全球九成以上的AI訓練算力依賴其芯片。基於世界銀行現價美元數據，全球在2000年的GDP為33.62萬億美元，2024年增長到111.33萬億美元。計算下來，25年間全球GDP名義複合增長率約4.9%。要知道，在這四分之一個世紀裏，硅谷經歷了互聯網泡沫破滅後的涅槃重生，個人電腦和智能手機走進了千家萬户，人類社會的交流方式迎來了顛覆改變。要用另一個25年的時間達到黃仁勳宣稱的500萬億美元全球GDP，那麼從今年到2050年，全球GDP年均複合增長率需達到5.3%。從歷史經驗來説，只靠單一領域的爆發是做不到的。更何況，在千禧年活躍的科技企業，許多並沒有熬過移動互聯週期。AI行業當前最大的困境是講了很多改變世界的故事，卻找不到穩定可量化的「商業價值」，一些豪言壯語即便説不上是海市蜃樓，也近乎虛無縹緲。舉個簡單的例子，AI行業常常將「互聯網泡沫」「iPhone時刻」掛在嘴邊，這説明從業者也認為AI還沒有迎來能夠媲美PC時代或移動互聯時代的質變。第三方統計顯示，80%部署AI的企業沒有實現淨利潤的提升。AI帶來的效率提升與生產力解放仍停留在「演示」階段。找不出合理的商業模式，奧爾特曼為代表的從業者轉而把解決變現困境的方向挪到產業的上游，一再強調實現通用人工智能必須仰仗算力規模的指數級擴張，硬生生不讓外界在意當前的商業難題，而是要去思考AI時代到來後的國際「裝備競賽」，反覆突出興建AI基礎設施對主導未來世界話語權的重要性。據知情人士透露，按照最新孖展計劃，尚未盈利的OpenAI已將自身估值提升到8300億美元。在今年初，這個數字還是3000億美元。過去一年，OpenAI對用户需求缺乏洞察的劣勢明顯暴露，幾次研發策略調整都明顯偏離了市場偏好，讓擁有產品矩陣優勢的谷歌AI迎來了強勢復甦。隨着谷歌把AI對話框直接嵌入瀏覽器和搜索框，就連「ChatGPT將替代搜索引擎」的聲音都近乎消失了。2025年，OpenAI原本設定的目標是周活躍用户數突破10億人次，當前尚不足9億，增速大幅回退。換言之，OpenAI的估值增長跟應用表現毫無關係，靠的全是「星際之門」描繪的宏偉願景。科技行業是個「造夢工廠」，某種程度上是個預期自我實現的行業，面對市場的擔憂，最聰明的科技領導者們當然不能露怯，唯有不斷鼓吹願景，以重新獲得資本的支持與信任，遊戲才能繼續。03當AI產業將重心轉向基建之後，行業的存在邏輯正在經歷劇烈的轉型。AI獨角獸在很長一段時間被認為是輕資產公司，日常運營最大的開銷是人力成本，給從世界各地湧入硅谷的「最強大腦」支付優厚的薪資待遇，而數據中心建設直接把AI產業從腦力競賽搞成了工業競賽。不可否認，美國擁有全世界都羨慕的人才優勢，可是當AI從思維世界的軟件比拼變成物理世界的基建比拼，硅谷無疑是在暴露自身的短板。特朗普願意為「星際之門」站台，是因為OpenAI為他描繪了一個青史留名的願景——他會是主導AI時代「曼哈頓計劃」的美國總統。按照規劃，「星際之門」可以在美國創造10萬個勞動崗位，用科技行業的資金幫助修復美國工業產業空心化。可是在一個全球化時代，將AI數據中心佈局美國本土完全背離商業經營的原則，不僅效率變低，成本也會變高。黃仁勳在活動中打了一個比方，如果把AI看作是「五層蛋糕」，能源是最底層的基石。AI數據中心的用電密度比傳統數據中心高10倍，一個AI訓練集羣相當於一座10萬人口小城市的用電量。據第三方估計，美國數據中心每兆瓦建設成本高達1000-1500萬美元，電費將佔運營成本的40%。目前，美國電網平均使用年限已經達到40年，由於聯邦和各州政府政策不一，電路建設審批覆雜，電網承載能力嚴重不足。摩根史坦利認為，2025年到2028年，美國電力缺口將達到47吉瓦，相當於44座標準核電站的發電量。常年打着捍衞美國工薪階層旗幟的民主黨參議院桑德斯瘋狂抨擊AI已經侵佔了美國5%的電力，大幅推高了用電成本，損害普通民眾的利益。「AI數據中心建設不是進步，是億萬富翁的財富掠奪！」儘管特朗普政府正在推動監管機構將數據中心接入電網的審批用時，從5年壓縮到60天，但成效甚微。12月，有媒體做專題報道，用事實數據論證擁有全球最大電網的中國有可能憑藉能源優勢在AI基建競爭中後發制人。2024年，中國的發電量是美國的2倍，中國的工業電費不到美國的一半。這篇報道氣得特朗普在社交媒體連發數條推文怒噴，還信誓旦旦地寫道：「我們有充足的天然氣、清潔煤炭，電力供應綽綽有餘！」情緒解決不了實際的問題。雖然科技巨頭紛紛牽手能源企業，嘗試用小型核反應堆、地熱、分佈儲能的方式緩解，可是電力作為模式成熟的傳統行業，確實做不到AI那樣日新月異。美國憑藉深厚的人才積累和技術優勢吹響了進軍AI時代的號角，而工業空心化又讓AI領域所暢想的「創新驅動基建，基建支撐霸權」邏輯難以閉環。因此，黃仁勳給出了自己的解決方案，他向台下約25 家電力領域頂級初創公司（多數為英偉達投資組合公司）CEO 們喊話，這些企業涵蓋液冷、固態變壓器、燃料電池、現場制氫、微網、儲能等方向。這場面確實宛如19世紀美國工業革命時，卡耐基重整鋼鐵行業、範德比爾特建設鐵路網。他們都曾給市場畫了巨大的餅，瘋狂舉債，但一起推動了美國的工業大發展，催生了現代市場經濟體系，為美國工業產值、GDP 世界第一打下了基礎。如今美國的焦慮並非只來自於AI 是否有泡沫，對於習慣了第一的美國人，如果無法保持絕對霸主地位，就意味着會走向失敗。因此，他們會繼續執着於AI 的宏大敍事。即使微觀層面各種擾動會引發股價波動，乃至甲骨文股價這樣的腰斬，但只要「AI=霸權」的宏大敍事不滅，那麼，重新點燃市場的亢奮情緒，只需要一個超預期的新模型、新突破。從這個角度來説，倒不是黃仁勳多想做AI 時代的卡耐基、範德比爾特、摩根，而是美國需要這麼個人，維護「美國第一」的地位。而要摧毀這個目標，我國也需要有自己的英偉達，承擔這一重任的就是國產GPU 廠商。這是DeepSeek 給出的建議的邏輯原點。更多精彩內容，關注鈦媒體微信號（ID：taimeiti），或者下載鈦媒體App","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}