提问 2026： AI 加速，请系好安全带

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站在 2025 年的岁末回望，不是所有事情都离不开 AI，但人工智能还是 2026 年确定性的方向，真正的影响将在未来一年继续显现。提前拉开 2026 年这场大戏序幕的，当然要属 Meta 以超过 20 亿美元收购了 AI 创业公司 Manus，这是科技巨头对 AI 智能体志在必得的野心，更是一场 AI 竞逐赛中对人才的渴望和焦虑，它为全球科技发展史写下了浓墨重彩的一笔。如何前瞻 2026 年的...

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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260111095120a70c5489&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2360107168.USD","symbol_name":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260111095120a70c5489&s=b","article_id":"2602340925","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260111095120a70c5489&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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年的科技画像并不是单一颜色的。它既有“大力出奇迹”后的渐进式改良，也有地缘博弈下芯片产业的奋起直追，更有马斯克那些即便被怀疑也从未停止的宏大实验。乐观的一面，是因为 AI 作为一种“无限心智”，正以前所未有的速度“着陆”到我们的生活场景；保留余地的一面，是因为在算法编织的未来里，如何定义人类自身的价值，才是一道每个人真正面临的必答题。这提醒我们，享受科技加速度的同时，别忘了系好安全带。正如《经济学人》发出的关键一问，人工智能所引发的热潮和期望是前所未有的，其真正的影响仍然不明朗。人工智能会带来经济复苏、金融崩溃、社会反弹，还是三者的某种组合？预测未来是为未来做好准备，你对 2026 年的期待是什么？1更聪明的 iPhone 会来吗？《华尔街日报》把第一个科技领域预测给了苹果的 Siri，因为今年 6 月苹果软件工程高级副总裁克雷格·费德里吉告诉他们，公司正在基于新的底层架构重建 Siri，以提升其人工智能水平。半年后，老将退位，曾在谷歌负责 Gemini 聊天机器人项目、后加入微软的阿马尔·苏布拉马尼亚加入苹果公司，担任人工智能副总裁。另外，苹果公司也在测试谷歌 Gemini 的一个版本，用于驱动新一代 Siri。《华尔街日报》对 2026 年的预测，还包括苹果的首款折叠手机。这款产品预计将于 2026 年秋季与 iPhone 18 系列一同发布，将采用书本式设计，配备多个摄像头，并使用 Touch ID 而非 Face ID ，而且预期价格超过 2000 美元，在此之前，收好你的钱包。2山姆·奥尔特曼会卸任 OpenAI CEO ？《福布斯》大胆猜测：奥尔特曼不再是领导公司迈向上市公司的最佳人选。《福布斯》甚至预言了奥尔特曼卸任的方式：与 2023 年 11 月 OpenAI 董事会突然解雇奥尔特曼震惊世界的戏剧性事件不同，这次的人事变动将会经过精心策划。它将被描绘成奥尔特曼的个人决定，他将按照自己的意愿宣布这一消息。《福布斯》的预测理由，包括谷歌 Gemini 蚕食 ChatGPT 的市场，而且对手 Anthropic 计划最早于 2026 年上市，这都将给 OpenAI 带来更大的上市压力，此外，奥尔特曼宣布 OpenAI 聘请 Instacart 首席执行官菲吉·西莫担任“应用 CEO ”，因此，OpenAI 下一任 CEO 可能就是菲吉·西莫。《福布斯》特别明确的是，山姆·奥尔特曼不会就此淡出人们的视线。未来很多年，他仍将在芯片、数据中心、太空、脑机接口等领域开展众多项目。3大模型公司上市潮来临？这是已经上演的故事，智谱、MiniMax（稀宇科技）两家公司已经开启了港交所的上市路，这是国内 AI 大模型“六小虎”中率先跑出的两家，他们一个深耕 B 端市场，毛利率高达 50%，客户主要是大型政企，而另外一个则是 C 端突围，超 70% 收入来自海外。大模型上市潮开启，本质上是因为它们存在巨大的资金需求，不得不进入公开市场，募集更多的股权和债务融资。《福布斯》认为，估值 3000 亿美元的 Anthropic 公开上市，是2026 年最受期待的IPO之一。2025 年，Anthropic 的年度经常性收入（ARR）从 10 亿美元增长至 90 亿美元。与此同时，OpenAI 的ARR 将从 60 亿美元增长到 200 亿美元。4AGI（通用人工智能）不再流行？过去，通用人工智能被描述为一种超越人类水平的存在，它能在所有任务中都能完美展现自己。但如今，人们已经不再期待这种彻底的颠覆，而是用一种更务实的眼光看待人工智能。模型端， GPT-5和 Gemini 3 等大模型，相比其前代产品都取得了渐进式的改进。智能体虽然展现出巨大的潜力，但仍缺乏足够的能力和可靠性来实现广泛应用。机器人学和生物学等领域的基础模型尚未成熟，无法投入实际应用。所以《福布斯》认为，人工智能生态系统中逐渐形成一种共识：超级人工智能可能并非近在眼前——更重要的是，它或许并没有那么重要，这项技术已经非常强大。在通用人工智能到来之前，随着人工智能重塑各行各业和组织，数万亿美元的价值创造机会已经唾手可得。与此同时，《经济学人》认为，硅谷的风险投资家、企业家和科技巨头们都聚焦于一点：如何加快企业采用人工智能的速度。如果企业能够将人工智能融入运营并提高生产力，就能从中获利颇丰，因此，2026 年需要关注的一个关键指标，将是正式采用人工智能的速度，以及这些努力的成功程度。关于通用人工智能（AGI）的讨论在 2026 年不会完全消失，但它会变得不那么流行了。5什么才是 AI 最广泛的“身体”？2026 年会是“硬件+AI融合”的商用爆发年， AI 玩具开启热卖、AI眼镜百镜大战、人形机器人展示比赛……各种各样的智能产品都在 AI 带动下增长，都是在为 AI 找到身体——把 AI 从屏幕中、对话框中解放出来，应用到自己的身边具体场景中。豆包 AI 眼镜刚刚曝光，谷歌搭载 Gemini 的眼镜也即将上市，这都是 2026 年 AI 眼镜行业中的重磅选手。而把 Manus 收入囊中的 Meta，会在 AI 眼镜中如何部署它的代理能力？而在人形机器人领域，《华尔街日报》认为美国 Neo 和 Memo 两款人形机器人都计划启动家庭测试，通过收集真实世界的数据，从而改进机器人，使其更擅长折叠衣物和清空洗碗机等家务。毫无疑问，2026 年的大模型前沿之战，就是物理世界的应用。但《连线》不忘叮嘱：时刻在线，意味着时刻危险。因为很多可录制的穿戴设备会带来隐私或大数据泄露等问题，很多科技公司将在 2026 年采取必要的限制和安全措施。6人工智能的泡沫破裂？DeepSeek 在 2025 年年初的爆发，引发了芯片市场的一阵恐慌，那么 2026 年还会有什么意想不到的事情发生？《连线》杂志认为，2026 年美国 AI 行业可能出现更大幅度的、同样短暂的下跌。在经历了高速增长期后，领先的 AI 公司可能需要进行调整，加大对成功投资的投入，并削减那些表现不佳的项目。例如 OpenAI 可能迎来大规模大裁员，因为它过去两年里员工人数增长了五倍，达到约 4500 人，它面对着与谷歌等对手的直接竞争，而且将触角伸向了芯片等很多新领域，它是否仍然拥有最优秀的人才担任最合适的职位呢？与《福布斯》的判断一样，《连线》认为 2026 年涌现大量的 AI 公司上市，很多是趁着估值达到顶峰时套现，错过“窗口期”的公司，可能会加入裁员的浪潮中。《经济学人》也提到，如果人工智能的应用普及速度加快，投资者将继续相信，他们的慷慨投入和耐心最终会带来丰厚的回报。但任何人工智能收益迟迟无法实现，甚至根本无法实现的迹象，都可能导致估值大幅缩水。历史证明，即使是铁路和互联网等实用技术，也往往伴随着金融繁荣，但如果人工智能热潮消退，美国家庭数万亿美元的财富可能会化为乌有。7迎来人工智能领域的失业潮？人工智能可能会在 2026 年引发新一轮的失业潮，这是“人工智能之父”杰弗里·辛顿最近明确提出的判断，他表达出担忧，因为人工智能的发展速度比他预期的要快，尤其是在推理和欺骗人类的能力方面。人工智能确实在改造工作和职场，《福布斯》引用了十位不同公司高层对就业市场的判断，他们普遍认为在未来一年里，人工智能的作用更多在于增强和人性化，而非取代人类。此外，《经济学人》的预测中认为“失业潮”这种担忧是人之常情，那些更快采用新技术的公司会受益于更高的需求，从而雇佣更多员工；随着一些工作岗位的过时，新的工作岗位也会涌现。当然，真正的影响仍然不明朗。没有确定的答案，最终《经济学人》认为：人工智能会带来经济复苏、金融崩溃、社会反弹，还是三者的某种组合？世界将在 2026 年开始找到答案。8中美人工智能芯片的差距缩小？2026 年 1 月 2 日，壁仞科技正式登陆港股市场；而此前，中国 GPU “四小龙”中的摩尔线程和沐曦股份，都已经登陆了科创板，一系列举措之下，《福布斯》认为中国人工智能芯片的信心正在增强。虽然英伟达和台积电在芯片领域的技术积累深厚且体系复杂，不是一朝一日可以复制的，但《福布斯》还是承认，中国拥有众多优秀工程师、丰富的资源以及国家对这项事业的坚定支持。所以它认为 2026 年中国国内芯片产业，将在缩小与美国在人工智能硬件领域的差距方面取得切实而有意义的进展，而且“走上高效发展道路并稳步迈向人工智能芯片制造前沿的迹象将显而易见”。此外，《福布斯》认为长远来看，中国人工智能芯片崛起，对英伟达和美国来说是一个糟糕的结果。2026 年开启的另外一个趋势是，越来越多的公司开始计划设计自己的人工智能芯片，针对特定的应用进行优化。9无人驾驶会让事故更少吗？无人驾驶出租车依然是《连线》、《华尔街日报》都期待的事物，预计将在 2026 年迎来大幅扩张。因为过去一年，Alphabet 旗下的 Waymo、亚马逊的 Zoox、特斯拉的 Robotaxi 都发展迅速，并且在公布了新一年在美国市场拓展的计划，比如 Waymo 要扩张到 25 个城市，提供的服务量将超过 100 万次，远高于目前的数十万次。与此同时，它们也都提到扩张计划的危险一面，当扩展的城市越多，汽车发生事故或是全城范围停运，都将导致更多的负面新闻出现。《连线》认为，无人驾驶出租车很少是事故的直接原因，到 2026 年，运营方将有动力采取安全措施，避免发生事故。10永远不要跟马斯克作对？SpaceX 上市、Grok 5模型发布、Robotaxi 更大规模商用、人形机器人 Optimus 量产倒计时……全球首富马斯克的 2026 年将有很多大事发生，诸多悬念待解。“特斯拉约 80% 的价值将来自 Optimus”，马斯克曾说。美国主流媒体对 2026 的预测中，看不到特斯拉或是 Optimus 的身影，因为马斯克“画饼”量产人形机器人太久了。现在可以明确的是，2026 年第一季度特斯拉将正式发布 Optimus V3，至于年底能否启动年产 100 万台规模的生产线，也是判断人形机器人行业的标志。小鹏汽车、优必选和宇树科技等一众中国选手，都已经提前曝光了各自的计划，它们很可能在抢在特斯拉前面。而如果 SpaceX 如期 2026 年上市，则意味着有史以来规模最大的 IPO 将要发生。目前披露融资金额预计远超 300 亿美元，目标是实现 1.5 万亿美元的估值。在过去的 2025 年，SpaceX 预计收入将达到 150 亿美元左右，而 2026 年将增至 220 亿至 240 亿美元之间，其中大部分销售额来自于星链计划。2026 年，马斯克仍然是全球企业家中的焦点。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}