专题报告 | 海外铜冶炼厂减停产潮中，国内炼厂如何重构价值链话语权？

市场资讯

11/12

（来源：中信期货研究）中信期货研究9月24日 Grasberg 大幅下调 2025-2026 年铜矿产量，市场对铜矿供应紧张的担忧骤增，铜价大幅上行。据 10 月 31 日 ICSG 报告，2025 年全球铜矿产量增长率从 4 月预测的 2.3%下调至 1.4%，全球 15 家主要矿企年内产量指引增量转负。我们梳理矿企财报并结合 CRU、Wood Mackenzie，统计得出 2025-2027...

网页链接

免责声明：投资有风险，本文并非投资建议，以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请，作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考，不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证，投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

{"basename":"/hans","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - 老虎证券","title":"老虎证券全球投资理财平台| 一站式投资美股新股港股A股","description":"老虎证券助您一站式投资美股，新股，港股，A股等全球金融理财产品。新加坡华人最信赖的在线投资平台，现在加入即享低费用，24/5 无时差炒美股投资理财！","keywords":"老虎证券,老虎证券开户,老虎券商,老虎证券官网,老虎证券app,tigertrade老虎证券,股票,炒股,新加坡股票交易平台,投资,投资理财","social":{"ogDescription":"老虎证券助您一站式投资美股，新股，港股，A股等全球金融理财产品。新加坡华人最信赖的在线投资平台，现在加入即享低费用，24/5 无时差炒美股投资理财！","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png","ogUrl":"https://www-web.itiger.com/hans/news/2582631418"},"companyName":"老虎证券"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2582631418\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2582631418?lang=zh_CN&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-11-12 08:04","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2582631418","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"专题报告 | 海外铜冶炼厂减停产潮中，国内炼厂如何重构价值链话语权？","media":"市场资讯","content":"<div>\n<p>（来源：中信期货研究）中信期货研究9月24日 Grasberg 大幅下调 2025-2026 年铜矿产量，市场对铜矿供应紧张的担忧骤增，铜价大幅上行。据 10 月 31 日 ICSG 报告，2025 年全 球铜矿产量增长率从 4 月预测的 2.3%下调至 1.4%，全球 15 家主要矿企年内产量指引增量转负。我们梳理矿企财报并结合 CRU、Wood Mackenzie，统计得出 2025-2027...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025111209120094feae2e&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>专题报告 | 海外铜冶炼厂减停产潮中，国内炼厂如何重构价值链话语权？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n专题报告 | 海外铜冶炼厂减停产潮中，国内炼厂如何重构价值链话语权？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-12 08:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025111209120094feae2e&s=b><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>（来源：中信期货研究）中信期货研究9月24日 Grasberg 大幅下调 2025-2026 年铜矿产量，市场对铜矿供应紧张的担忧骤增，铜价大幅上行。据 10 月 31 日 ICSG 报告，2025 年全 球铜矿产量增长率从 4 月预测的 2.3%下调至 1.4%，全球 15 家主要矿企年内产量指引增量转负。我们梳理矿企财报并结合 CRU、Wood Mackenzie，统计得出 2025-2027...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025111209120094feae2e&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0345780521.USD","symbol_name":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025111209120094feae2e&s=b","article_id":"2582631418","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025111209120094feae2e&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2582631418","pubTimestamp":1762905840,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"考虑到全球废铜供应增量，2025-2027 年全球铜精矿需求增量分别为 65-85 万吨、65-80 万吨、50-65 万吨。结合铜精矿供应增量可以看出，2026 年铜精矿供需紧张格局仍将延续，2027 年铜精矿供需紧张有望缓解。在当前极低加工费的背景下，中国冶炼厂凭借成本优势及各种稳生产措施，生产稳定性明显强于海外，铜精矿需求份额进一步提升。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0345780521.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0828237510.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF BIC (BRAZ IN CH)\"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1188198961.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) INC QV","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","00358":"江西铜业股份","LU0328353924.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0049853897.USD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0348827113.USD":"ALLIANZ RCM CHINA \"AT\" ACC","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1224709979.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1251922891.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0886674414.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK1505":"一带一路","02899":"紫金矿业","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","LU0096374516.USD":"CT (LUX) I ASIA EQUITY INCOME \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0540923850.HKD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0345780281.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL GOLD \"A\"  ACC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","LU1831875114.USD":"SCHRODER ISF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0469268626.HKD":"AB FCP I-ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY PTF(AD","LU0561508036.HKD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0463099449.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","LU0266512473.USD":"JPM GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","BK1592":"有色金属","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0828237940.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK1594":"碳中和概念股","LU2399975544.HKD":"ALLIANZ ALL CHINA EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0456854461.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Natural Resources A (acc) SGD","LU0106252389.USD":"SCHRODER ISF EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC"},"translate_title":"Special Report | Amid the wave of overseas copper smelters reducing production and shutdowns, how can domestic refineries reconstruct their voice in the value chain?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00358":0.9,"02899":0.9},"content_text":"（来源：中信期货研究）中信期货研究9月24日 Grasberg 大幅下调 2025-2026 年铜矿产量，市场对铜矿供应紧张的担忧骤增，铜价大幅上行。据 10 月 31 日 ICSG 报告，2025 年全 球铜矿产量增长率从 4 月预测的 2.3%下调至 1.4%，全球 15 家主要矿企年内产量指引增量转负。我们梳理矿企财报并结合 CRU、Wood Mackenzie，统计得出 2025-2027 年全球铜矿供应增量分别为 17 万吨、67 万吨、57 万吨。根据 ICSG，2022-2024 年全球精炼铜产能利用率中枢约为 83%。然而进入 2025 年，全球铜粗炼产能快速释放，全球精炼铜产能利用率从 83.2%快速下滑至 81.0%。我们梳理国内外计划投产的冶炼产能，并结合目前冶炼厂公布的减产计划，得出 2025-2027 年全球新投产粗铜冶炼产能分别为166 万吨、71 万吨、53 万吨。考虑到全球废铜供应增量，2025-2027 年全球铜精矿需求增量分别为 65-85 万吨、65-80 万吨、50-65 万吨。结合铜精矿供应增量可以看出，2026 年铜精矿供需紧张格局仍将延续，2027 年铜精矿供需紧张有望缓解。当前矿企利润丰厚且铜价因供应紧张而上涨的背景下，冶炼厂因利润受到明显挤压，生产稳定性不佳。2025 年以来极低的长单和现货加工费使得菲律宾 PASAR、印尼 Manyar、智利 Altonorte、日本 JX 金属、加拿大霍恩等冶炼厂相继减产，而价格分享机制有利于保障冶炼厂利润空间，维护矿企铜精矿销售渠道，进而保障矿企利润稳定。冶炼厂减产更可能发生在原料自给率偏低的企业，我们梳理半年报以及投资者调研纪要中公司对冶炼业务的表态，发现国内冶炼企业普遍无减产计划，而是通过不断降低成本、提高铜及副产品回收率、加大再生铜料采购量以及拓展下游高附加值产品等多种方式渡过行业寒冬。在冶炼厂暂无计划减产，但是 2026 年铜精矿供需将更加失衡的背景下，2026 年中国冶炼厂长单加工费很可能不高于 0 美元/吨，那么冶炼厂则面临较大亏损。在当前极低加工费的背景下，中国冶炼厂凭借成本优势及各种稳生产措施，生产稳定性明显强于海外，铜精矿需求份额进一步提升。如果国内冶炼厂齐心协力严控新增产能，那么相较于海外冶炼厂更有能力向海外矿企重新协商定价模式。这会极大程度改善冶炼行业经营困境，助力国内冶炼企业行稳致远。风险因素：宏观政策变化","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}