AI的危险信号：ChatGPT的欧洲付费用户增长或已停滞！

华尔街见闻

10/17

本文作者：董静来源：硬AI AI行业的标杆产品ChatGPT面临关键挑战，欧洲付费用户增长或已停止，这揭示了一个重磅信号：AI变现能力受到考验。 10月17日，据硬AI消息，德意志银行在最新研报中称，ChatGPT在欧洲市场的消费者支出自今年5月以来几乎陷入停滞，暗示这款AI浪潮的“旗帜产品”在吸引新付费用户方面或已触顶。尽管OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman上周宣布，ChatGPT...

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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757376\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0097036916.USD","symbol_name":"贝莱德美国增长A2 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Altman上周宣布，ChatGPT每周活跃用户已突破8亿人，但德银指出，其付费用户增长明显放缓，收入增长与Spotify、Netflix等流媒体平台相比仍存在巨大差距。\n\n研报称，在OpenAI估值高达5000亿美元、接近Netflix市值的背景下，其收入规模和付费订阅用户数量却远远落后。这揭示了AI产业当前面临的核心矛盾——技术影响力与商业盈利能力之间的巨大鸿沟。\n德银分析师Jim Reid表示：“AI毫无疑问将改变世界、提升生产力，但盈利的路径仍然模糊。真正的挑战，不在算法，而在商业模式。”\n欧洲市场增长信号转弱\n根据德意志银行dbDataInsights团队对法国、德国、意大利、西班牙和英国五大欧洲市场的追踪数据，ChatGPT的消费支出月度增长率自2025年5月起明显放缓。\n值得注意的是，虽然2024年7月和8月也曾出现类似的季节性放缓（当时归因于学生用户暑期减少），但彼时6月增长强劲，9月更出现显著反弹。\n相比之下，2025年这两个月的表现均显平淡，未能重现去年的增长动能。\n\n分析指出，这一差异暗示当前的增长停滞可能并非简单的季节性波动。尽管数据仅覆盖部分欧洲市场而非全球，且仍可能存在数据波动，但这一趋势无疑值得密切关注。\n估值与营收的巨大落差\n德意志银行的对比分析揭示了OpenAI估值与实际业务规模之间的显著差距。报告称，\n\n\nNetflix市值与OpenAI预期估值（5000亿美元）相当，但其拥有超过3亿全球订阅用户，2025年预计年收入达450亿美元，市销率为12.5倍。\n音乐流媒体平台Spotify市值1440亿美元，拥有2.76亿订阅用户，预计年收入超过170亿美元，市销率为7.3倍。\n\n\n相比之下，根据OpenAI今年4月披露的数据，其全球付费订阅用户仅约2000万——这一数字与估值之间的落差极大。\n德银指出，OpenAI的用户增长虽惊人（每周活跃用户已从3月底的5亿人升至8亿人），但“如何将庞大流量转化为持续付费订阅者”仍是商业化的最大挑战。\n研报指出，AI工具在最初阶段的增长往往依赖好奇心与免费用户的扩散效应，但进入付费阶段后，留存率和持续价值将决定平台的商业上限。\n投资者正高度关注OpenAI即将到来的收入披露周期。德银认为，若付费增长持续停滞，AI行业的估值体系可能面临修正压力。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}