美国天然气期货周二走低，源于未来两周天气转凉预期抑制燃料需求，市场情绪逆转。纽约商品交易所八月交割主力合约下滑2.3美分或0.7%，收于每百万英热单位3.443美元，此前周一价格曾触及七月以来峰值。

美国国家飓风中心警示，佛罗里达州东海岸热带系统可能在一周内增强为热带气旋，向西移入墨西哥湾。分析师指出，尽管风暴可能短暂中断生产，但墨西哥湾离岸产量仅占美国总输出约2%；更常见的是风暴摧毁需求——断电导致数百万家庭和企业停用燃气发电，并关闭液化天然气出口工厂。

气象学家预测，至少至七月末气温仍高于正常水平，但热度不及先前预期。尽管今夏持续高温，分析师预计未来数周能源企业将维持超额注入库存；六月产量创纪录后，七月有望再创新高，而四月以来液化天然气出口流量低迷。当前库存较五年（2020-2024）平均水平高出约6%，且盈余料将扩大，但今年晚些时候出口回升或逐步消化过剩。

LSEG数据显示，七月迄今美国本土48州平均产量升至每日1069亿立方英尺，超越六月纪录1064亿立方英尺。LSEG预测，包括出口在内的需求将从本周1078亿立方英尺降至下周1068亿立方英尺，较前次展望下调。八大液化天然气出口工厂平均流量升至每日158亿立方英尺，部分工厂维护结束推动回升，但仍低于四月峰值160亿立方英尺。

2023年美国超越澳大利亚和卡塔尔成为全球最大液化天然气供应国，俄乌冲突引发价格飙升驱动出口增长。欧洲基准荷兰产权转让设施价格约每百万英热单位12美元，亚洲日韩基准为13美元。

库存与价格数据： Week ended Jul 11 Forecast Week ended Jul 4 Actual Year ago Jul 11 Five-year average Jul 11 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +45 +53 +18 +41 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,051 3,006 3,208 2,874 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average +6.2% +6.1% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2024 Five-Year Average (2019-2023) Henry Hub NGc1 3.41 3.47 2.21 2.41 3.52 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 11.86 12.31 10.32 10.95 15.47 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 13.12 13.12 12.32 11.89 15.23 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 34 3 3 3 U.S. GFS CDDs 237 242 218 213 203 U.S. GFS TDDs 240 246 221 216 206 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last Year Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 106.5 105.8 105.2 103.3 97.8 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.2 7.9 7.7 N/A 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 114.7 113.7 112.9 N/A 105.7 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.0 2.0 N/A 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.0 6.6 6.5 N/A 6.4 U.S. LNG Export Feedgas 15.2 15.6 15.5 11.1 10.0 U.S. Commercial 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.7 U.S. Residential 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 U.S. Power Plant 45.2 46.0 45.2 49.0 48.1 U.S. Industrial 22.2 22.2 22.2 21.8 21.7 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Total U.S. Consumption 82.9 83.7 82.9 86.4 86.9 Total U.S. Demand 107.1 107.8 106.8 N/A 99.2 N/A is Not Available U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast 2024 % of Normal Actual 2023 % of Normal Actual 2022 % of Normal Actual Apr-Sep 77 77 74 83 107 Jan-Jul 79 79 76 77 102 Oct-Sep 80 80 77 76 103 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Jul 18 Week ended Jul 11 2024 2023 2022 Wind 5 7 11 10 11 Solar 7 7 5 4 3 Hydro 5 5 6 6 6 Other 1 1 1 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 45 44 42 41 38 Coal 19 19 16 17 21 Nuclear 17 17 19 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 3.21 3.22 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 3.20 2.75 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 3.70 3.38 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 2.74 2.58 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 3.11 2.98 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 7.76 3.57 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.94 3.76 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 1.63 1.47 AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 0.67 0.76 洲际交易所美国电力次日价格（美元/兆瓦时） Hub Current Day Prior Day New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX 126.65 76.50 PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX 78.03 66.86 Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX 58.68 57.15 Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX 51.67 53.58 SP-15 W-SP15-IDX 36.45 38.49