在7月15日，美国天然气期货价格攀升至近两周高位，因天气预报显示持续高温可能提振需求预期，尽管创纪录产量和低迷的夏季消费令市场情绪谨慎。

纽约商品交易所8月交割的天然气期货合约结算价上涨5.7美分，涨幅1.6%，报每百万英热单位3.52美元。盘中一度下跌2%。俄克拉荷马城C.H. Guernsey and Company管理顾问Zhen Zhu指出：“期货价格近几周横盘震荡，表明市场方向不明朗。但未来数周天气将转热，虽属季节性，却可能成为推升价格的主因。”

尽管今夏气温已高于正常水平，分析师预计能源公司仍将超常规注入库存。产量在6月创纪录后，7月有望再创新高，而液化天然气出口自4月峰值后持续疲软。当前库存较五年均值（2020-2024）高出约6%，分析师预期盈余将继续扩大。然而，部分人士指出，液化天然气出口增加或于年底削减过剩。美国国家飓风中心称，佛罗里达东海岸一热带系统有40%概率下周增强为热带气旋，移向墨西哥湾沿岸。分析师警告，风暴虽可能中断约2%的天然气生产，但更易成为需求破坏因素——断电会减少发电用气量，并关闭出口工厂。

气象预测显示，至少至7月30日前天气将偏热，但不及先前预期。供应方面，LSEG数据显示7月迄今本土48州平均产量升至106.9亿立方英尺/日，高于6月峰值106.4亿立方英尺/日。需求方面，包括出口在内的本土48州平均需求预计从本周107.8亿立方英尺/日降至下周106.8亿立方英尺/日，低于周五预测。美国八大液化天然气厂平均流入量7月迄今升至15.8亿立方英尺/日，因部分工厂维护结束，但仍低于4月峰值16.0亿立方英尺/日。美国2023年超越澳大利亚和卡塔尔成为全球最大液化天然气供应国，部分源于俄乌冲突引发的价格波动。

Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $13 at the Japan Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU Week ended Jul 11 Forecast Week ended Jul 4 Actual Year ago Jul 11 Five-year average Jul 11 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):+45+53+18+41 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):3,0513,0063,2082,874 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average+6.2%+6.1% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2024 Five-Year Average (2019-2023) Henry Hub NGc13.413.472.212.413.52 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc111.8612.3110.3210.9515.47 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc113.1213.1212.3211.8915.23 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm U.S. GFS HDDs34333 U.S. GFS CDDs237242218213203 U.S. GFS TDDs240246221216206 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last Year Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production106.5105.8105.2103.397.8 U.S. Imports from Canada8.27.97.7N/A7.8 U.S. LNG Imports0.00.00.00.00.1 Total U.S. Supply114.7113.7112.9N/A105.7 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada2.02.02.0N/A2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico7.06.66.5N/A 6.4 U.S. LNG Export Feedgas15.215.615.511.110.0 U.S. Commercial4.34.44.44.44.7 U.S. Residential3.63.53.63.63.5 U.S. Power Plant45.246.045.249.048.1 U.S. Industrial22.222.222.221.821.7 U.S. Plant Fuel5.35.25.25.35.4 U.S. Pipe Distribution2.22.22.22.23.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel0.10.10.10.10.2 Total U.S. Consumption82.983.782.986.486.9 Total U.S. Demand107.1107.8106.8N/A99.2 N/A is Not Available U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) 2025 Current Day% of Normal Forecast 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast 2024% of Normal Actual 2023% of Normal Actual 2022% of Normal Actual Apr-Sep 77777483107 Jan-Jul79797677102 Oct-Sep80807776103 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Jul 18 Week ended Jul 11 2024 2023 2022 Wind 5 7 11 10 11 Solar 7 7 5 4 3 Hydro 5 5 6 6 6 Other 1 1 1 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 45 44 42 41 38 Coal 19 19 16 17 21 Nuclear 17 17 19 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 3.21 3.22 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 3.20 2.75 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 3.70 3.38 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 2.74 2.58 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 3.11 2.98 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 7.76 3.57 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.94 3.76 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 1.63 1.47 AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 0.67 0.76 ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX 126.65 76.50 PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX 78.03 66.86 Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX 58.68 57.15 Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX 51.67 53.58 SP-15 W-SP15-IDX 36.45 38.49 text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down. For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/ For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44 For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651 NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651 ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391 NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C