Despite an already strong run, Hua Medicine (Shanghai) Ltd. (HKG:2552) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 39% in the last thirty days. The last month tops off a massive increase of 181% in the last year.
Following the firm bounce in price, given around half the companies in Hong Kong's Pharmaceuticals industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.1x, you may consider Hua Medicine (Shanghai) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 14.3x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.
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Check out our latest analysis for Hua Medicine (Shanghai)
Recent times have been quite advantageous for Hua Medicine (Shanghai) as its revenue has been rising very briskly. The P/S ratio is probably high because investors think this strong revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hua Medicine (Shanghai), take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.In order to justify its P/S ratio, Hua Medicine (Shanghai) would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.
If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 234%. However, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 12% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Hua Medicine (Shanghai)'s P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
Shares in Hua Medicine (Shanghai) have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
The fact that Hua Medicine (Shanghai) currently trades on a higher P/S relative to the industry is an oddity, since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we observe slower-than-industry revenue growth alongside a high P/S ratio, we assume there to be a significant risk of the share price decreasing, which would result in a lower P/S ratio. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Hua Medicine (Shanghai) (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
Discover if Hua Medicine (Shanghai) might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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