Last week, you might have seen that United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.4% to US$94.60 in the past week. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$22b coming in 2.4% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$1.40, in line with analyst appraisals. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in United Parcel Service. Read for free now.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 29 analysts covering United Parcel Service, is for revenues of US$87.7b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 3.5% reduction in United Parcel Service's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$6.82, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$88.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.58 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for United Parcel Service

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.7% to US$117, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic United Parcel Service analyst has a price target of US$150 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$80.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await United Parcel Service shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the United Parcel Service's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.2% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - United Parcel Service is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for United Parcel Service. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for United Parcel Service going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for United Parcel Service you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.