On February 20th, following Thursday's session, it was observed that limited progress in US-Iran negotiations and inconclusive Russia-Ukraine talks had reignited market risk aversion. This safe-haven buying interest supported a rebound in gold prices. Consequently, for trading strategies, support was identified at $4950, followed by $4900, while resistance was noted at $5010, with a secondary level at $5100.
Subsequent price action showed that during the Asian session on Thursday, gold found support after a dip to $4960, rebounding to break the key $5000 level before encountering resistance near $5021. After the European market opened, support was established around $4974. Following the US market open, gold faced resistance near $4998, retreated to find support at $4964, then climbed again to meet resistance around $5022, maintaining a broadly consolidative pattern. At Friday's open, gold drifted higher, encountering resistance near $5042 and currently trading around $5026. Overall, gold extended the rebound initiated on Wednesday, largely aligning with the bullish outlook.
Analysis suggests that after halting its decline on Wednesday, gold tested higher levels over the subsequent two sessions, with bulls and bears wrestling around the psychologically important $5000 mark. Geopolitical risks provided underlying support for prices, while a robust US Dollar acted as a limiting factor. Specifically:
US-Iran consultations in Geneva yielded only limited progress, with significant differences remaining and both sides preparing for worst-case scenarios. On Thursday, the US President issued stern warnings, setting a potential countdown of 10-15 days before military action might be considered, seemingly putting the Middle East on a war footing. Simultaneously, Russia-Ukraine talks ended without agreement, collectively fueling market避险 sentiment and underpinning gold's advance.
Strong US Non-Farm Payrolls data released last week was later offset by Consumer Price Index figures showing inflation was lower than expected. However, Thursday's drop in Initial Jobless Claims reinforced the signal of economic resilience from the prior payrolls report. Federal Reserve meeting minutes also indicated most policymakers saw signs of stabilization in the labor market. These factors contributed to the US Dollar's continued rebound this week, hitting a fresh four-week high, which in turn capped the extent of gold's recovery.
On the daily chart, after meeting resistance last week, gold has traded within a high-level consolidation range, with recent short-term momentum leaning slightly positive. Key support is seen at the $5000 level, followed by $4980, near the session's low and coinciding with the weekly 5-period moving average. Immediate resistance is observed around $5050, near last Friday's rejection point and this week's high; a break above could target $5100, a level that has capped rallies for the past fortnight. Technical indicators show the 5-day MA and MACD's bearish crossover slowing, the KDJ forming a bullish crossover, and the RSI's bearish crossover turning upwards, approaching a potential bullish crossover—collectively suggesting short-term technical conditions favor a rebound.
Intraday Outlook for Gold: Escalating geopolitical tensions, including the inconclusive Russia-Ukraine talks with significant分歧, limited progress in US-Iran negotiations, and heightened war risks, have revived market避险 sentiment, supporting gold prices. However, persistent US Dollar strength is likely to constrain the upside potential for gold. Trading strategy建议 adopting a range-trading approach, with support monitored at $5000, then $4980, and resistance watched at $5050, followed by $5100.