The global precious metals market is undergoing a significant realignment at the start of 2026. Amid shifting geopolitical dynamics, the long-term bullish case for gold has not only been reinforced but has also transitioned substantially from a base-case scenario to a full bull market scenario. Meanwhile, the silver market, after a wave of speculative frenzy, is beginning to show signs of weakness. Helen Amos, Managing Director and Commodity Analyst at Bank of Montreal (BMO) Equity Research, systematically outlined this latest assessment in an interview with BNN Bloomberg, offering clear and profound guidance for global investors.

Investor enthusiasm for gold remains strong, driven by multiple overlapping factors. Amos noted that despite recent noticeable price volatility, market interest in precious metals and mining stocks has not diminished. Investor preference for gold and copper remains robust, making them BMO's top commodity picks for the year. She emphasized, "There are simply too many positive factors stacking up." These include strong economic growth momentum in emerging markets, the deepening global trend of deglobalization, and an accelerating de-dollarization process—these structural changes collectively provide solid support for precious metals. Concurrently, interest from both retail and institutional investors has shown remarkable resilience. Amos observed that whenever gold prices experience a brief pullback, a solid floor tends to be established quickly. This "buy-the-dip" market behavior strongly confirms long-term investor confidence in gold. It is the combined effect of these multi-dimensional drivers that keeps the gold market vibrant.

BMO's detailed bull case analysis suggests gold prices could approach $6,500 and continue climbing. BMO's most optimistic forecast is particularly striking. Based on its regression model, the gold price is projected to approach $6,500 per ounce by the end of 2026 and climb further to $8,600 per ounce by the end of 2027. The core logic behind this prediction is that if investment demand over the next two years matches the strong pace seen in the first year of a potential second Trump term, combined with sustained high levels of central bank purchasing and continued inflows into ETFs, gold prices could easily surpass previous record highs. Amos explained in detail that the model is primarily based on four key variables: global central bank gold buying demand, changes in ETF holdings, the US Dollar Index trajectory, and the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Although actual gold price movements have made the model "struggle to keep pace," these four factors still provide a reasonable explanation for its long-term performance. She specifically mentioned that even projections based on central bank buying and ETF inflows only slightly above historical averages are sufficient to push prices near $6,500, "which fully illustrates how the current market environment makes gold's ascent remarkably straightforward."

Geopolitical risks have intensified sharply, leading to a significant upward revision of the base case. Notably, BMO's initial base case had anticipated a price decline in the coming months. However, Amos acknowledged that this scenario was modeled on data from December 2025, and since January 2026, the global geopolitical landscape has changed dramatically. Tensions in Venezuela, disputes concerning Greenland, and market concerns about Federal Reserve independence, among other events, erupted within a few weeks, significantly tilting the risk balance towards the bull case. "The original base case is no longer applicable," Amos stated directly. "All risks are now skewed to the upside." This assessment implies limited downside potential for gold prices in the near term, while upside potential is further amplified.

Heightened caution is advised for the silver market as physical balances show signs of loosening. In contrast to the optimistic outlook for gold, Amos expressed significantly more caution regarding silver. She pointed out that silver is fundamentally driven more by its industrial properties than its role as a pure safe-haven asset. Currently, the physical supply-demand balance for silver is beginning to show signs of easing, primarily due to global solar installation volumes having passed their peak and excessively high speculative enthusiasm from retail investors between December 2025 and January 2026. "Substantial options trading and speculative capital previously drove silver prices higher, but these forces are now receding rapidly," Amos analyzed. "Following the price correction to a more reasonable range, the previous extreme volatility has also damaged silver's traditional reputation as a safe-haven asset." While she indicated ongoing vigilance for any new developments that might alter silver's investment appeal, the physical market has largely passed its tightest phase, and investors are advised to maintain a watchful stance.

In summary, a bull market window for gold has opened, while silver requires patience for the right opportunity. Overall, the latest views from BMO lead analyst Helen Amos paint a sharply contrasting picture for the 2026 precious metals market: gold is facing a historic bull market opportunity catalyzed by multiple structural tailwinds and geopolitics, while silver faces near-term adjustment pressures due to slowing industrial demand and receding speculative fervor. For investors, this implies maintaining active allocations in gold and copper sectors while adopting a more prudent approach towards silver. Although future market movements remain uncertain, the core message from Amos is clear and firm: in the current environment, the long-term bullish thesis for gold has significantly strengthened, whereas silver requires clearer signals of improved supply and demand dynamics. Global capital is re-evaluating precious metal allocations with unprecedented intensity, and 2026 could prove to be a banner year for gold.