Title

Earning Preview: US Physical Therapy Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 14.68%, and institutional views are muted

Abstract

US Physical Therapy will release its fourth-quarter results on February 25, 2026, Post Market, with consensus pointing to double-digit revenue growth and a modest year-over-year decline in EPS amid a mixed margin backdrop.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter indicates revenue of 200.42 million, up 14.68% year over year, EBIT of 20.98 million, up 14.10% year over year, and EPS of 0.667, down 3.38% year over year; no formal guidance was observed for gross margin or net margin this quarter. The main business continues to be patient services, which remains the dominant revenue engine and is expected to benefit from steady visit volumes and clinic-network contributions. The most promising segment is patient services, which delivered 164.02 million last quarter and, given the company-level revenue growth of 17.32% year over year then and a 14.68% year-over-year total revenue forecast now, is positioned to track solid double-digit growth on an annual basis.

Last Quarter Review

US Physical Therapy reported revenue of 197.13 million, a gross profit margin of 21.70%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 13.14 million, a net profit margin of 6.74%, and adjusted EPS of 0.66, with revenue rising 17.32% year over year and adjusted EPS declining 4.35% year over year. A notable highlight was a sequential improvement in net profit, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.01%, alongside a revenue beat of 3.17 million versus the prior consensus. Main business highlights included patient services revenue of 164.02 million, representing 83.21% of total sales, with the overall revenue base expanding 17.32% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Patient Services: Revenue Trajectory and Margin Sensitivities

Patient services is the core profit center for US Physical Therapy and is expected to set the tone for quarterly performance. The forecasted total revenue increase of 14.68% year over year implies healthy throughput across the clinic footprint, with contributions from visit growth, new clinic additions, and operational execution at existing sites. While top-line momentum is supported by volume, the quarter’s EPS estimate of 0.667 implies modest margin compression year over year, suggesting that wage, staffing, and operating costs could exert pressure against gross profit margins in the near term. The patient-care model typically leans on careful scheduling, therapist productivity, and payer mix management; incremental improvements in each area can offset cost headwinds, but the recent EPS trajectory points to some constraint relative to last year’s profitability per share. Balancing clinical capacity with labor cost trends remains essential for margin stability, particularly in weeks with elevated referral flows and post-holiday season dynamics that can shift patient scheduling patterns. Given the last quarter’s gross margin of 21.70% and net margin of 6.74%, this quarter’s margin cadence will likely be the primary determinant of whether EBIT growth of 14.10% year over year translates proportionally to earnings power.

Most Promising Segment: Patient Services and Revenue Mix

Patient services, at 164.02 million last quarter and accounting for 83.21% of total revenue, remains the company’s primary growth lever. The current revenue forecast of 200.42 million for the quarter, up 14.68% year over year, sets a constructive backdrop for patient services to continue driving the majority of gains given its large base and consistent demand patterns. With “Other” services contributing 33.11 million last quarter (16.79% of sales), the aggregate mix complements the patient services engine, but the scale of patient services makes it the segment most likely to realize the benefits of any volume uplift or operational efficiency improvement. While explicit year-over-year growth rates for the patient services segment aren’t separately provided, the 17.32% company-level revenue growth last quarter and the 14.68% forecast this quarter imply a sustained double-digit trend for the core offering, assuming mix stability. The near-term opportunity comes from maintaining throughput while controlling labor costs and optimizing appointment utilization, which historically enhances revenue per clinic day and supports incremental margin resilience.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings-per-share trajectory is likely to be the focal point for investors, with a 3.38% year-over-year decline implied by the EPS estimate, even as revenue rises double digits; this dynamic often reflects either gross margin compression or higher operating expenses tied to growth investments. The interplay between the last quarter’s gross margin at 21.70% and this quarter’s operational cost base will be central to how the market reads the quality of growth, since EBIT is forecast to rise 14.10% year over year but EPS is forecast to dip year over year. If expense intensity related to staffing, clinician wage inflation, occupancy, or other overhead proves lower than feared, EPS downside versus last year could be shallower and the print better received; conversely, if cost normalization lags, investors may reassess the balance between scale-up and profitability. In addition, the quarterly cadence of net profit matters for sentiment: last quarter’s net profit improved 6.01% quarter over quarter, a constructive sign that will be tested against this quarter’s revenue and EBIT progression. Finally, any commentary around clinic additions, integration progress, and scheduling/throughput improvements will be parsed against current estimates to gauge sustainability of double-digit revenue growth and the timing of margin recovery.

Analyst Opinions

Across the monitored period from January 01, 2026 to February 18, 2026, there were no captured English-language analyst previews or rating changes specific to US Physical Therapy within the defined parameters, leaving the observable sell-side tone muted ahead of the report. In the absence of fresh directional calls, the majority stance defaults to a cautious interpretation of consensus, which pairs a robust 14.68% year-over-year revenue increase with a 3.38% year-over-year decline in EPS. This setup often leads analysts to emphasize margin watchpoints and cost control effectiveness over headline growth, particularly when the forecast already anticipates EBIT up 14.10% year over year. The cautious view centers on whether patient services can deliver enough productivity and mix improvement to stabilize gross margin while sustaining double-digit revenue gains, which would be the path to narrowing the gap between EBIT growth and EPS performance. As a result, into the print, the prevailing consensus essentially embeds healthy demand but conservative profitability assumptions, and the quarter is likely to be judged on the balance of growth quality and margin execution.